Posted on 06/04/2021 4:25:01 PM PDT by BeauBo
(President Trump's Operation Warp Speed Update)
(Vaccination just barely on pace for July 4th, but Cases are dramatically low)
Total Vaccine Doses Delivered: 369,159,075 (21,365,800 J&J)
Administered: 299,120,522 (11,014,773 J&J)
People Vaccinated, At Least One Dose: 169,735,441
Fully Vaccinated: 137,455,367
(Excerpt) Read more at covid.cdc.gov ...
Total Vaccine Doses Delivered: 784,000 (Weak) (99,000 J&J - Weak)
Administered: 1.4 Million (OK) (75,000 J&J - Weak)
People Vaccinated, First Shot: 645,000 - (Weak - but barely on pace for 4th of July goal of 70% of Adults with a first shot).
Fully Vaccinated: 810,000 (OK for "new normal")
% Total Population with at least a First Shot: 51.1 (up 0.2)
Those ≥ 18 Years of Age (Adults): 63.2% (up 0.2)
Those ≥ 65 Years of Age: 86.1% (up 0.1) (75.2% Fully Vaccinated - up 0.2)
Cases and New Hospitalizations continue dropping steadily and significantly, over the last six weeks, to lows not seen since the very start of tracking).
538 Deaths (flat).
Me=no
Do you know how many who were vaccinated also had had Covid prior to vaccination?
Is that data available?
OK
“Do you know how many who were vaccinated also had had Covid prior to vaccination?
Is that data available?”
Sorry, I don’t know. I’d assume that there is a large percentage of those who have had the disease, who also got vaccinated, but I’ve never seen a good estimate.
About 169 Million (51% of the population) have had at least a first vaccine shot, and probably something over 120 million Americans (36% of the pop) have already had the virus.
If there was no overlap (269 million total), that would be over 80% of the total population, and probably a good bit higher percentage of Adults (who are the ones who matter).
Adults are currently about 63% with a first shot, so what really matters for the disease, is how many additional Adults have had the disease, who have not yet gotten any vaccine. I’d take a WAG that 10-15% more of the Adult population is immune from exposure(bringing Adults to around 75% immune), but I have no strong basis for that.
“Herd immunity” =
For non-perfect vaccine it is actually (1-1/R0)/E, where E is vaccine efficacy.
Thanks Beaubo,
It’s an important piece of info that I think should be made available.
Without it it is impossible to know the coverage of conferred immunity in the U.S.
Your analysis of 75% immunity is certainly feasible.
That makes more sense if one multiplies by the vaccine efficacy...
“Given an R0 value before lockdowns in most countries of between 2·5 to 3·5, we estimate the herd immunity required is about 60–72%. If the proportional vaccine efficacy, ε, is considered, the simple expression for pc becomes [1 – 1 / R0] / ε. If we assume ε is 0·8 (80%), then the herd immunity required becomes 75–90% for the defined range of R0 values. For lower efficacies, the entire population would have to be immunised. These overall estimates ignore heterogeneities that can make these figures lower or higher in specific locations.17, 18”
No wonder I keep forgetting...
No but I know close to 1/2 dozen of seniors over 55 would have started having various health issues since they have had the vaccine that show no signs of any conditions BEFORE taking it - most of them now life threatening!
“Herd immunity” = For non-perfect vaccine it is actually (1-1/R0)/E, where E is vaccine efficacy.”
That is a key consideration, when comparing Countries with high vaccination rates, but which used vaccines of very different effectiveness.
The UAE has achieved a relatively high rate of vaccination, as compared to other countries, but used a lot of Chinese vaccine - probably the least effective of the major options available. They still are fighting a high incidence of cases. Same with Mongolia.
The USA and Israel used mostly the most effective option available (Pfizer/BioNTech), and have seen powerful impact on the disease, once adults got 50-60% vaccinated.
“The USA and Israel used mostly the most effective option available (Pfizer/BioNTech), and have seen powerful impact on the disease, once adults got 50-60% vaccinated.”
...of course that vaccinated proportion of the population, is augmented by some additional unknown percentage, who have immunity through exposure.
Going forward, natural exposure to the disease is going to be much less of a factor in building herd immunity, because new cases are low now, and declining quickly (35% over just the last week).
Even at the currently slow rate of vaccination, it is still probably over ten times more than natural infections. Soon that will be twenty times, and so on, as cases dwindle.
What I’ve seen in the US is that the spread starts decreasing at about 40% vax,
Other considerations such as seasonality and “wild” infections and distancing no doubt also factor.
( Seems all these factors should be in that “efficacy” denominator- not sure how to do that.)
“Herd immunity” is not as helpful a consideration as I’d hoped.
At least for a layman with only moderate math skills LOL!
““Herd immunity” is not as helpful a consideration as I’d hoped.”
I think it is is a well defined math problem - it is just that we have unknown variables.
If we knew with precision who has had the disease, and the effectiveness it had in conferring immunity, we would be able to combine that with the vaccination data for some accurate prediction.
As it is, we probably have a 20-25% margin of error, due to the unknown variables.
Check out the graph in post #3.
At this rate of decline, cases would zero out this month.
We will keep importing more from Central America through Mexico of course, but it will be interesting to see if the disease hits an “over the cliff” critical threshold in some places, over the next few weeks.
Going to be a lot of explaining on judgement day. I would love to hear the excuses they come up with for using aborted baby tainted vaccines
Excellent points, but consider also the ~90 million Americans who have recovered from infection who have at least some level of protection. On the other hand, their R0 value is low for the more recent variants. The values I see most often in the literature range from 4.5 - 5.3.
Only the people using the J&J vaccine need worry about that.
The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were fully developed, tested, and produced without the use of fetal stem cells. Only after-the-fact third party testing (required by FDA) used fetal stem cells, and by that point, Pfizer and Moderna already had millions of doses of vaccine sitting in freezers waiting to ship to hospitals.
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