Posted on 06/03/2021 5:06:04 AM PDT by Kaslin
For many of us here in Asia, Japan has set an economic standard that others strive to achieve. Besides, Japan is one of the active funders of developmental projects across the emerging countries in Asia.
I myself have worked on a Japanese-funded railway corridor project in India, which will likely support both electric and diesel trains. But all that is about to change.
Japan has announced that it will be moving away from fossil fuels and reducing its dependency on coal and oil for energy. Is that a major blunder? Why is it dangerous to Japan’s economy—and others in Asia?
Japan: Energy Backdrop
Japan has very few natural resources to fuel its energy sector. It has traditionally relied on imports, especially oil. To minimize risk, the country diversified its energy sector and began adopting nuclear energy at a rapid pace. Despite this, it is still the fifth-largest petroleum consumer in the world (2019).
Japan benefited immensely as a nuclear-energy superpower. Nearly 30 percent of its electricity needs came from nuclear plants. However, the country’s run with nuclear energy would take a wild turn in 2011.
The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant incident during the 2011 Tsunami triggered a widespread movement against nuclear energy in the country. Eventually, Japan reduced its reliance on nuclear energy in the last decade.
Spike in Coal Power, Followed By the Green Agenda
Meanwhile, Japan’s reliance on coal had been steadily increasing during the last three decades.
Between 1990 and 2017, Japanese coal consumption tripled. With imports accounting for 99 percent of all its coal consumption, Japan is the third-highest importer of coal in the world.
The pace picked up after the Fukushima incident, and the country went on a coal-plant construction-spree. Japan focused on developing the ultra-supercritical coal-fired power plants, also known as clean coal technology, that are more efficient in coal burning.
But this coal spree came to a screeching halt in 2020, when the new Prime Minister Suga announced that Japan would move away from coal power plants. “We will fundamentally shift our long-standing policy on coal-fired power generation,” he said in his first address to Parliament. “Carbon neutrality itself is a growth strategy, and we must carry it out with all we have,” he added.
In April 2021, he announced that Japan will make more sacrifices to cut down its carbon emissions (46% from 2013 levels by 2030) and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. It is also understood that japan will end support to coal fired plants abroad.
Mass Exodus of Coal and Oil Giants
This shift in government energy policy has also impacted coal businesses and energy companies which are now disinvesting from coal.
Japan's biggest oil refinery, Eneos Holdings Inc., has now announced its exit from the coal mining business. J-Power, one of the country’s largest electric power development companies, scrapped plans for a new coal plant owing to increasing regulation against coal power. Kansai Electric Power Co. and Marubeni Corporation have cancelled their joint venture to build a 1.3 gigawatt coal power project.
Mitsubishi canceled its plan to build a $2 billion coal plant in Vietnam. Sojitz announced a complete withdrawal from thermal coal, oil, and coking coal projects by 2030.
Sumitomo, one of Japan’s largest business groups, has decided to exit the coal business by 2040. It has announced a halt in coal financing. Currently, Sumitomo owns coal mines outside Japan and imports around 6 million tonnes of coal to Japan. It is also an active builder of coal plants in Japan and other countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Bangladesh.
Sumitomo’s decision to sell mining assets (by 2030) and completely withdraw from coal plant construction (by 2040) will hurt the energy prospects of both Japan and other countries which relied on Sumitomo and Japanese aid.
Energy Intensive Japan Staring at a Fossil-less Energy Nightmare
With the mass exodus of energy companies and Tokyo’s decision to move away from coal and oil, the country is staring at a bleak future.
Japan is the fifth-largest energy consumer in the world (2019) and has the third-highest electricity demand in Asia. Fossil fuels accounted for 70 percent of electricity generation in 2019.
For an energy-intensive country that depends predominantly on coal and oil (66 percent combined) for its energy needs, the decision to move away from coal and oil will be suicidal. The energy crisis will be a regular event in Japan if the country follows up with its decision.
The proposed anti-fossil fuel policy seeks to replace coal and oil with renewables and nuclear. But even at the proposed building rates, Japan’s nuclear capacity in 2030 will be significantly lower than its 2011 levels.
The lethal blow, however, will come from renewables. Dependency on wind and solar will not only be insufficient to meet the energy demand, but also will disrupt grid stability owing to their intermittency and raise energy prices steeply, just as they’ve done in California and Germany. It will also cause occasional blackouts, a common event in grids that over-rely on renewables.
Even Bill Gates, an ardent lover of renewable tech and a climate alarmist, has gone on record to say that the currently available renewable technologies are not ideal for the energy-intensive cities of Japan.
Moreover, Japan’s continued reliance on biomass (wood) is not sustainable. It would be hypocritical to destroy the forests in the name of saving the climate.
Unless there is a major overhaul of its proposed carbon neutrality goals, Japan’s energy crisis is inevitable in the next decade. Besides, Japan’s decision to reduce funding fossil fuel projects leaves Asian economies unable to accelerate their developmental projects.
Embracing unproven predictions about future climate and risking the energy sector for the sake of climate action will only lead to an energy crisis in Japan and widespread poverty elsewhere in the nations that depended on Japan to boost their respective energy infrastructures.
I read last night about hydrogen for using in a fuel cell to generate electricity. 95% of hydrogen production comes from natural gas! Really leaving those fossil fuel behind..... 🤣
“Japan is the fifth-largest energy consumer in the world”
Wow! Nuclear is the only way forward if they abandon fossil.
Building nuclear plants near the ocean is cost effective until their radioactive materials are washed into the ocean.
But admittedly, the costs for an electroylzer and hydrogen tank storage are still sky high for little throughput. When the costs come down in a year or two I'll add that to my system and tell the energy control-freak Dims to kiss my ChristianFreeAmericanHairyWhiteUnsodomized butt.
It's still expensive but will inevitably get cheaper.
Japan’s New Anti-Fossil Fuel Approach Will Compromise Its Energy Security’
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Just following America’s lead to the cold and dark under CCP rule
Will someone get the great idea of taking down all power lines and recycling them ? LOL
Japan is ripe for a nuclear power make-over with the latest in small, safe and modular nuclear power plants.
To end dependence on fossil fuel, Japan will either have to go all out for nuclear energy or cover large parts of its small land mass and coastal waters with windmills and solar panels. The fickle nature of solar and wind power will require more nuclear plants to pick up the demand when the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing. If the decision is made to go all out for “green” energy Japans economy will be crippled by large scale blackouts.
Perhaps it would be wise to invent a parachute before jumping out of planes, just saying...
The storage of hydrogen is challenging. The trick with all the alternative energy plans is not be on the early expensive side of the curve but be on the lower cost, proven technology side. Electric cars will make sense when the electricity does not come from fossil fuels. Electricity generated by solar or wind would be great, but the storage is not practical yet. One day we will have a perfected system.
Turns out coal plants can burn ammonia or hydrogen or both.
https://www.powermag.com/jera-planning-to-shift-coal-power-fleet-to-100-ammonia/
Gas turbines as well.
https://www.powermag.com/mitsubishi-power-developing-100-ammonia-capable-gas-turbine/
And large diesels stationary and marine have been ammonia fueled for years as have smaller farm diesels for irrigation pumps and what not. Ammonia is second only to sulfuric acid in the amounts made yearly. Billions of tons for each of those chemicals. Natural gas is the usual source of the hydrogen for ammonia synthesis but with cheap solar and the cost of electrolysis cells in freefall hydrogen from solar or wind or nuclear power for that matter via large scale electrolysis is here to stay. Ammonia stores as a liquid under propane levels of pressure and is 17% H2 by weight higher than even LNG on a density basis.
4th gen reactors will be cranking out hydrogen by the millions of tons as well.
Audi is working on modular fast chargers that only need a single 480v hook up not triple phase 3000+ HV AC , fast charge at 270 kw using second life cells as the energy buffer and means to trickle charge or demand shift off peak power rates. The current industry standard is moving to 800v DC with 350 to 500 kw charging that’s a full 5% to 80% charge of a 60kWh pack in 5 minutes or less.
https://www.audi-mediacenter.com/en/press-releases/audi-pilots-concept-for-quick-charging-13977
Check this guy out...he did the system you just described cost at the time was 500k
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/hydrogen-house/
Solar panels are now under 20 cents per watt. And h2 electrolysis is coming down fast.
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/03/21/the-weekend-read-hydrogen-is-getting-cheaper/
Next question is how is the electricity generated? Currently 40% of California's electricity comes from Natural Gas. So that is the next part of the system to address.
I saw that guy a year or so ago. He got a lot of grant money to do it (I think from the state of NJ if I recall).
To me the best solution is a do-it-yourself kind of solution. Now that costs are down for everything except except hydrogen storage, we're better off if we do it on our own. There's no use hoping the power company will do it right, or that the state will do it right, or that the state will make the power company do it right, when it's all smoke and mirrors to make you think they're saving the world from global warming that we should all be glad we have to get us further away from the Little Ice Age anyway. But I digress.
If you live in the south solar is good. Plenty of sunshine, when you need more power is in the summer (read more hours of sun in the day) to run the A/C, more so during the day (when the sun is out) than the night. But only if you do the homework for your specific power uses on a month-by-month basis (I use a lot more in the summer than I do the spring and fall, and a little more than in the winter). Do the math on how much battery storage is feasible. The 15-year HELOC I took out to buy my stuff will be paid off in about 12 years with what I save on my power bill, with all of my stuff having either 20 year warranty (batteries) or 25 year warranty (solar panels and inverter). And that's without me selling back to the power company my excess power (don't get me started on the extra fees my local power company charges if you do a solar agreement with them).
Even if we didn't have selfishness on the part of the power company, state regulators, or federal regulators, there's no way a power company can do green energy with a one-size-fits-all efficiency like you can with your own situation. It's only because I customized my solar equipment to meet my family's specific needs is green energy even worth considering.
But that's me thinking like a software engineer and being used to doing detailed analysis of new projects to design and code custom software for my clients. If you're not going to go into that kind study on your power usage, peek solar hours in your area, how much power is consumed spread out through the day vs how much of it happens in bursts (i.e. when you and your wife get home from work is when most of your appliances are used, and all at once and putting a demand on your inverter), I wouldn't give green energy a moment's thought.
The Mojave desert gets nearly 300 days of full sun a year the entire energy consumption of the USA could be generated with solar panels that’s total not just electricity that’s subbing out oil n gas for transport as well.
“NREL’s land use report, we can estimate that roughly 14,000,000 acres or 22,000 square miles of solar panel-filled land would be required to generate enough electricity to solar-power the U.S. This is about the size of the Mojave desert.”
“On average, there are 279 sunny days per year in Mojave.
Mojave gets some kind of precipitation, on average, 25 days per year. Precipitation is rain, snow, sleet, or hail that falls to the ground. In order for precipitation to be counted you have to get at least . 01 inches on the ground to measure.”
The total amount of solar energy is staggering.
https://www.sandia.gov/~jytsao/Solar%2520FAQs.pdf
“More energy from the sun falls on the earth in one hour than is used by everyone in the world in one year”
https://www.nrel.gov/research/re-solar.html
The issue has always been cost of panels vs usefull life, and how to store the energy at night. Teslas new gigafactory in Austin Texas is going to break the $50 kWh battery cost at the cell level when it opens up they are already at $60 and falling.
AC and heat are the two most energy uses at home but properly designed systems can store heat or cold as hot or cold heatsinks not electricity so the actual kWh needed for a home is around 10kWh per day that’s 300 per month and half of that is needed when the sun is shining. A 30 kWh powerwall will store 3 days worth and at $50 a kWh cost 1500 in cells. Hardly breaking the bank when home prices are averaging 450,000 right now in DFW a 10000 watt system costs $8000 installed again a small fraction of the home’s value on the mortgage those panels are full insured with homeowner’s insurance and have a 25 year warranty on capacity. Once second life power cells become available in mass the equation gets even better for storing energy from.day to night.
The large scale storage will be needed for the utilities. Even if all new homes have their own battery pack, the existing homes would not, thus utilities would need to fill the void. Converting 10% of the existing homes to have a battery pack each year would be a ten year project.
Tesla powerwalls are designed for retrofit to existing homes any qualified electrician can make the patch at the breaker panel. Same for solar panels they can and are being put up on existing homes. Nearly any bank will do a refi on a home to add to the mortgage the cost of the panels and Powerwall. If the owners have good credit they can save money with the current low rates.
For utilities pumped hydro and air storage makes more sense.
https://newatlas.com/energy/hydrostor-compressed-air-energy-storage/
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