[palmer]

Didn't read those and would have ignored them. I am interested in what happened to people who got the shot and reported something that sounds real (or in most cases a health care provider reported it). The limit for reporting is 60 days, 30 days is a realistic upper limit, but most reports are of incidents within a week of the shot.

That's 7 days / 365 * 0.008 * number of vaccinees / underreporting ratio. Assuming there are 4 times as many real events as reports, that's 3836 deaths in VAERS. So that's ballpark expected deaths assuming 100 million vaccinees.

For reactions other than deaths you need every shot, or 250,000 and typically day-of-vaccination or at most the day after. With 800,000 heart attacks annually / 330 million Americans that's 415 heart attacks with 250 million shots assuming 25% reporting into VAERS.

This is not difficult to understand nor controversial. Same numbers for stroke as heart attack, and I have not looked up the rest. That's what should be in VAERS, and any large excess of those numbers indicates unexpected adverse reactions.

For deaths, about the expected number of reports. For adverse reactions, more than expected, but I have to do more careful filtering to reduce the false positives and negatives.

[2aProtectsTheRest]

There’s a lot of assumptions built into those calculations, any one of which could significantly alter the outcome. I appreciate your attempt to apply a reasoned analysis, but there’s a lot of noise in VAERS to consider. It’s very difficult to pull real signal out of it without much more complete data sets and more in-depth analysis going report-by-report.