I still have us roughly on track for reaching HIT in July. The exact point won’t be clear, but we’re already seeing a great impact. The fourth wave was a complete dud. I expect any further waves to similarly fail to materialize as the virus runs into walls of inoculated people. Local outbreaks are still possible depending on local inoculation rates, but I think we’ve seen the end of any nationwide waves.
Once we’re into July, I think even state-by-state we’ll see the 7-day moving average maintain an inexorable downward slope toward zero.
“I still have us roughly on track for reaching HIT in July.”
That seems to be what the White House/CDC are planning on.
As you have pointed out before, the curve is different, for different variants. Also, natural immunity is big unknown both prior exposures and cross-immunities. That likely varies from place to place as well. Some places will hit it early, others late.
I think that enough of the early thresholds have been been crossed, to start seeing declines in the overall averages already.