“Post is misleading at best.”
Could say that about yours as well.
Tell me if I am wrong.
This could be called the actuarial hypothesis.
Author says it’s already being seen.
You say data is premature and what he sees is an artifact of reporting.
“...many reporting jurisdictions take several weeks to provide their data.”
I assume reporting districts are counties.
Question. How many are “many”.
Do you know?
What time frame do you say would provide enough time to have complete enough records to assess the actuarial hypothesis?
Based on what I’ve seen watching that page over the past year pretty frequently, you need at least 8 weeks to get ~95% of the total deaths reported. By about 12 weeks, you have a fairly solid number. Anything after that is a very small change. Probably some tiny town that has one person doing multiple jobs and doesn’t have time to submit everything right away.
40% of counties take longer than 10 days to update. A few take up to 8 weeks to update death reports.
So you basically need to wait two months to confirm the actuarial hypothesis. It’s also normal and has been noted previously with severe influenza seasons, so this isn’t unexpected.
Breaking the economy and worsening the prospects of the young and healthy in a futile attempt to extend the lives of the old and ill was an ill conceived Faucian public health experiment.