If it ain't Klingon, it ain't sh!t.
Posted on 05/02/2021 7:59:43 AM PDT by Navy Patriot
Russia's Navy has test-fired a supersonic anti-ship cruise missile in the Black Sea in a show of force ahead of NATO military exercises in the region.
With tensions still simmering following Russia's build-up of troops on its border with Ukraine, the Russian Defense Ministry tweeted on Friday footage of the Moskva guided missile cruiser from its Black Sea Fleet launching the Vulkan missile.
The P-1000 Vulkan missile, an improved version of the Soviet-era P-500 Bazalt missile with greater range, was fired via the Moskva warship's Bazalt main missile system, the Defense Ministry said.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsweek.com ...
This is a report which followed the FAILED launch the day prior? (rhetorical/sarcasm)
Yep, that be it!
Russia is seeing a steady decline in military spending; from a post Soviet high of 60 billion USD to about 50 billion USD today. Do they have weapons? Yes. Are all the weapons on their books usable. No. Maintenance is suffering and upgrades are few and far between. If you follow the Russian military, most of their propaganda is about weapons on the planning board.
Now, should we discount Russia? No. Like an aging prize fighter, they could deliver one hell of a wallop. Can they go the distance in a real fight. Probably not as well as they could have, say, ten years ago. On the other hand, no power in Europe could handle them. Probably not even all the old NATO countries together. The US has basically lost interest in Europe and Russia. The US is still in the talking game, but I doubt anyone in NATO or the countries between Russia and Europe has any illusions that the US is ready and willing to back them up.
“This is a report which followed the FAILED launch the day prior? (rhetorical/sarcasm)”
Exactly how many failed launches have we had before we perfected our military systems? The Russians do not have a monopoly on that! Don’t forget that Russia (USSR) put the first object in space, the first human in space and we even used their rockest to get OUR astronauts to the space station before Elon Musk came along.
Look at how many rockets Elon Musk has blown up in pursuit of recycling his rockets that now seem to operate as a routine way of saving money (returning home).
Get real. The Russians are a very credible opponent and you can underestimate them at your(our) risk.
You don’t want to poke the bear. If you do there may a big price to pay. After all, when exactly have we been successful in our military efforts (Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan)? I am a proud veteran and our boots on the ground are as good as any, but our leaders are weak. Very weak. You and I may pay the price!
Good points ...but Biden likes to shoot his mouth off and play tough guy and that is a dangerous situation on many fronts. Russia and the rest of our enemies are watching Bozo closely.
If it ain't Klingon, it ain't sh!t.
“but I doubt anyone in NATO or the countries between Russia and Europe has any illusions that the US is ready and willing to back them up.”
The US has no essential interests east of the Rhine.
Anyone who believes we would, or should, go to existential war there is crazy.
Our nation is collapsing and some still want to fight wars with nations that can annihilate us. Old habits die hard.
Why can’t we make a simple deal with Russia, they stay out of our backyard and we stay out of theirs’.
The smart thing for jao xiden to do will be to order a land invasion of Russia starting the day after Thanksgiving.
The USN has been ignoring Russian weapons systems for decades as inconsequential. As well, they’ve also ignored nuclear terror threats (I’m surprised it hasn’t happened yet).
If you want to worry your little head about this one, go ahead.
If most people knew how badly US naval forces would be handed their ‘hats’ in a conflict with an enemy in this era (especially under the ‘woke’ leadership), there would be no debate about the defense budget (save for the historical & ongoing mismanagement of procurement).
We’re decades past due for a new ‘Rickover’ to reformat modern US naval doctrine, development & strategy.
I don’t see it happening in my lifetime. In contrast, I do see a naval conflict in my lifetime, and it won’t be pretty.
“Can they go the distance in a real fight. Probably not as well as they could have, say, ten years ago”
I’m not sure your assessment is correct. Russia learned a lot in Chechnya, the Caucuses, and even more in Crimea. Their military has been a primary focus since. Their military budget pales in comparison to ours, but they do spend about $70B a year which places them in fourth place worldwide (behind us, China, and India).
Russia has dealt with pitched battle adversaries for over 150 years and always seems to come out on top even while experiencing massive losses (Napolean & Hitler).
Finally, they know all the things you mentioned in your post. In the end, as you commented, they could not outlive us in a protracted engagement. Therein is the problem. They do have a nuclear arsenal that is larger than ours and they have the means to deliver them. It only takes three or four blasts to knock both of us back to the stone age.
Russia and Putin are keenly aware of how important it is to protect their country and borders. They are also keenly aware of the threats against them and by whom. You will have to ask the military experts, but if they draw a line it is my guess that crossing that line will result in a strong reaction by the Russians.
Don’t poke the bear — especially if you are a weak-kneed Joe Biden who can hardly string a sentence together.
“If most people knew how badly US naval forces would be handed their ‘hats’ in a conflict with an enemy in this era (especially under the ‘woke’ leadership),”
We are still living off of our success from 75 years ago. That was a different generation and under different leaders. That was before we became a “woke” mass of humanity.
China and Russia don’t have that problem. They focus on getting the job done — which is precisely what we should do. Some may not like the way they go about it but they are successful and I pretty sure we are not. The woke crowd seems to believe we can dictate our beliefs to the rest of the world and they will follow. Those days are rapidly coming to an end.
Hitler was crazy, but he was smart — until he overran his headlights with the Russian invasion. It did take four years for that conflict to end. If he had not made that strategic mistake in Russia, we would probably all be speaking German now.
Let’s continue to go down that path with infiltrating our military with LGBQTXYZ, trans, and the other weirdos against an enemy that is smart enough not to go down that path. Who gets the advantage in that match-up? As a veteran, I think I know the answer.
It's important to note the situations Russia picks to respond to, and what Russia chooses to protect.
They are starkly different from Russia of the Soviet era, and point to an entirely different mindset for both the majority of the Russian people, and Government.
While nowhere near the world military power of the post WWII Soviet Era, overall the Russian military is not rapidly declining, and has completely in-sourced military materials and technology.
The last twenty odd years has seen Russia respond to their inherited weakness of Soviet Failure to a position of undoing Stalin's creation of Ukraine into a city-state of Kiev if Poland decides to reclaim the Western third that is historically Polish territory.
“Finally, they know all the things you mentioned in your post. In the end, as you commented, they could not outlive us in a protracted engagement. Therein is the problem. They do have a nuclear arsenal that is larger than ours and they have the means to deliver them. It only takes three or four blasts to knock both of us back to the stone age.”
America being a sometimes-yes-sometimes-no ally to Europe and the occasional former Soviet republic is probably one of the most dangerous aspects of geopolitics in the world today. American policy flipflops like a newly boated tuna. The major wars of the twentieth century could have been avoided if the allied powers had been more forceful and not appeasing. Trying to keep our heads down and ignore issues is the default condition for most elected politicians. Anyone seen as too warmongering will probably not get reelected. The voting public has no strategic, forward-thinking capability. Everyone wants peace, not realizing that maybe the strong threat of war is the surest way to secure peace. People thought of Reagan and Trump as warmongers. No. The stronger the threat the less likely we will have to use it. Instead, the default is always appease, appease, appease.
As for Russia, a weak Russia is a more dangerous Russia. The gigantic nuclear torpedo they showed off is designed as the ultimate deterrent. It is a civilization-ending weapon. It is designed to knock out the entire US Eastern Seaboard. It allegedly has a warhead bigger than the Tsarbomba*. Russia has often hinted it has a dead-man switch on its nuclear arsenal. (Meaning if the automated weapons are out of contact with central authority for some period of time, they launch.) Personally, I don’t think they are that crazy.
Stalin allegedly told Mao, if you cross over into our territory, we won’t try to meet you tank for tank. We will go nuclear right away.
If Russia fails to retake the former Soviet Republics, it means they will probably starve. That’s because the Russian economy can’t match the purchasing power of the rest of the world when it comes to food stocks, which simply do not grow well in Russia as it is now. Also, Russia has to have defensible borders now, while they still have the military to take them. Within five years the demographic destiny is that Russia will have the smallest military it has ever had. In a literal sense, Russia’s biological clock is ticking down. The average man lives to something like 59 and their society is well below replacement numbers.
I am not advocating that the US get involved. But the situation certainly deserves more thought than President Biden and his handlers are capable of putting into it. Also, the Democrats have built Russia into a straw-boogieman. That’s hard to back away from without admitting they made up all the alleged Russian interference.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsar_Bomba
Somewhere in that stuff, I ran across an estimate that they would go nuclear during a major sea engagement in around 30 minutes.
They have always been about using missiles to counter our carrier capability, and they have gotten very good at missile design.
“America being a sometimes-yes-sometimes-no ally to Europe and the occasional former Soviet republic is probably one of the most dangerous aspects of geopolitics in the world today”
I pretty much agree with your comments. Where we may have different views is the strength of the Russian economy. We agree that demographics are working against them but that is true for almost all of the EU (and China, too). Russia has been around in various forms for about 1500 years. Probably earlier in other forms. They have expanded enormously through conquest to be the largest country on the planet. That may be an advantage or a disadvantage.
They are smart people of northern European stock. As the EU and Russia decline in population, they will likely become more dependent on one another. In the meantime, they do have some of the largest reserves of fossil fuels on the planet. And contrary to the crazy woke climate scaremongers, we will be dependent on those for many years to come.
We certainly agree on the position of strength. Reagan and his Star Wars scared the hell out of the Russians and they tried to overcome it but in the end, they could not afford to counter it. Actually, we couldn’t either but we sure made them believe it was real. That strength brought about their demise as the USSR.
We live in a dangerous world and we need leaders who are strong (like Putin, Xi Jinping & Trump). Biden’s lunch will be eaten by these two. What concerns me more are the crazies that are running the show (it is not Biden).
Finally, now and for the next few years is what concerns me. I fully expect that Russia will not collapse in the next few years. So, our danger level is slowly growing. Let’s hope it stops before it is too late.
Agreed
You raised an interesting topic: Russian oil reserves. I wondered how much it cost to drill Russian oil versus drilling it in other parts of the world supply chain. Russia’s oil is in terrible locations when it comes to living there, working there, and shipping it. Below is a link to the breakeven costs for the entire world supply chain. Russia has the oil, yes. But it requires very high prices to break even. Essentially, they have it, but can’t afford to drill it and ship it at present prices. (This is why the Saudi’s started the oil price war. Russia refused to play ball when the Saudi’s set the price. Also, SA wanted to punish Russia for helping Iran and Syria. US shale can be turned off when the price is too low, and then started up again. This is not true for traditional wells, which may need to be re-drilled in order to continue producing; further increasing the breakeven price.)
https://knoema.com/infographics/vyronoe/cost-of-oil-production-by-country
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