Posted on 04/25/2021 2:07:15 PM PDT by Kaslin
Iranian eyes will be on Washington this week while looking over their shoulder at home. The Iranians are looking over their shoulder because a series of attacks attributed to them and their puppets in the Middle East are targeting Israeli commercial ships and firing rockets at Israel from Gaza and Syria. This is coupled with Israel’s reported retaliation against Iranian military ships, and explosion deep underneath an Iranian nuclear facility, raising eyebrows as to Israel’s reach and Iranian vulnerability.
Iranians are eying Washington this week as the Mossad director, Yossi Cohen, and Israeli National Security Advisor, Meir Ben-Shabbat, will be there to meet their US counterparts to discuss the Iranian nuclear threat. Israeli Chief of Staff, Aviv Kochavi, was also meant to make the trip but canceled due to dozens of rockets being fired at Israel from Gaza over the weekend, the potential Syrian threat, and Israel’s preparedness and response.
Either way, sending these top-level security and intelligence officials together, to meet with their US counterparts publicly, leaves no ambiguity: Israel is concerned about what seems to be a US push to return to the flawed 2015 (JCPOA) Iran deal. What are the issues and how might this play out vis a vis US-Israeli relations and beyond?
The high-level delegation will express Israel’s opposition to returning to the 2015 agreement. There’s no doubt, Israel will make its case and try to assess US goals, and to what degree the US will be transparent (even if differing), unlike during the Iran deal’s negotiating during which Israel was largely left in the dark. Israel will surely share intelligence, some old that was shared with President Biden’s predecessors, and maybe new surprises.
Iranian eyes will be on Washington this week while looking over their shoulder at home. The Iranians are looking over their shoulder because a series of attacks attributed to them and their puppets in the Middle East are targeting Israeli commercial ships and firing rockets at Israel from Gaza and Syria. This is coupled with Israel’s reported retaliation against Iranian military ships, and explosion deep underneath an Iranian nuclear facility, raising eyebrows as to Israel’s reach and Iranian vulnerability.
Iranians are eying Washington this week as the Mossad director, Yossi Cohen, and Israeli National Security Advisor, Meir Ben-Shabbat, will be there to meet their US counterparts to discuss the Iranian nuclear threat. Israeli Chief of Staff, Aviv Kochavi, was also meant to make the trip but canceled due to dozens of rockets being fired at Israel from Gaza over the weekend, the potential Syrian threat, and Israel’s preparedness and response.
Either way, sending these top-level security and intelligence officials together, to meet with their US counterparts publicly, leaves no ambiguity: Israel is concerned about what seems to be a US push to return to the flawed 2015 (JCPOA) Iran deal. What are the issues and how might this play out vis a vis US-Israeli relations and beyond?
The high-level delegation will express Israel’s opposition to returning to the 2015 agreement. There’s no doubt, Israel will make its case and try to assess US goals, and to what degree the US will be transparent (even if differing), unlike during the Iran deal’s negotiating during which Israel was largely left in the dark. Israel will surely share intelligence, some old that was shared with President Biden’s predecessors, and maybe new surprises.
Other Contributing Factors Not Present in Washington
There’s speculation that rather than coming to Vienna in good faith, Iran is negotiating with threats. Announcing that it was increasing uranium enrichment to 60%, clearly above any limits in the 2015 Iran deal, much less far above any possible civilian usage, took place as negotiations were beginning in Vienna. It’s a fair question as to whether Iran was trying to up the ante in advance of these negotiations, to try to get concessions from the US and other world powers.
It’s probably not a coincidence that the alleged Israeli strike deep within the Natanz facility took place after the Iranian announcement. If Israel was indeed responsible for that explosion, it surely had a self-interest as Iran is threatening to destroy Israel without any shame or ambiguity. As much as that may have been in Israel’s strategic interest, hopefully/perhaps preventing a much greater escalation, doing so removed Iran’s ability to actualize the threat, for now. However, keeping with the “upping the ante” example, the Natanz explosion may have taken away some of the aces in the Iranians’ hand, even if they are playing with their own stacked deck.
It’s only been a few months since the Saudis have allowed Israeli commercial flights to transverse its airspace. These include flights to destinations as far off as India and Thailand, as well as direct flights to the UAE and Bahrain. It’s also no secret that the Saudis may be waiting for the right moment to enter its own peace treaty with Israel, either as part of the Abraham Accords or on its own. Either way, there’s widespread understanding that no shortage of Israeli security coordination is taking place with the Saudis, with both having much more shared interest than what used to divide them.
With or without peace, and direct flights to Riyadh yet, having that relationship and access to Saudi air space could be key in any potential Israeli airstrike on Iran, should that become necessary. The Saudis and other Gulf Arab states might be perfectly happy for Israel to take the lead on this, maybe with coordination and even refueling Israeli fighter jets if needed, as the Iranian threat is a danger to them all.
Having the ability and access does not necessarily mean that Israel will carry out such an attack. Certainly, if the Biden administration is not a partner to such an action, doing so could create a rift. However, Israel has done it before and in the case of an existential threat, may care more about the well-being of 9.3 million Israelis than a rift with Washington. Will Israel operate on its own? Will it be forced to do so? Will the Biden Administration quietly facilitate or try to block Israel from doing so? Will it in turn use the threat of an Israeli strike in its own negotiations with Iran? Much of this remains to be seen but will not necessarily become clear this week.
Finally, all this takes place as Israel is navigating the attempt to form a government following the most recent of four national elections in two years. While Prime Minister Netanyahu has proven his acumen in a collective 15 years in office, and it’s accepted that betting against him is never smart, the reality is that now he faces the greatest challenge to his premiership, perhaps ever. With just a week to go for Netanyahu to form a government before Israel’s president is likely to task another to do so, how will all this change if within two months, if he is no longer Prime Minister? The Biden administration might quietly celebrate, and the Iranians may declare a national holiday, but it’s hard to imagine any possible successor not being as strident in protecting Israel and its interests.
All eyes are on Washington this week with good reason. Don’t blink, you might miss something very important.
No worry. The Shahs will get their money’s worth.
If we send the same crack diplomatic team that we sent to Anchorage to negotiate with the Chinese, the Iranians have nothing to worry about except maybe laughing to death.
Not exactly the worst president. That “honor” belongs to Barack Hussein 0bama, but definitely the stupidest president of all times.
>>The US will try and compromise Israeli security and plans and help the Mullah’s<<
Pathetic...yet true. Until we get a pro-American president back in office, suspend intelligence sharing.
This scene is reminiscent of “Howard Dean’s Scream” in that it is a permanent icon of a game changer, if not game ending. Howard Dean will never be anything he is not already. Joe Biden does have one more achievement possible, Disgraced Ex President, and if God willing, soon.
Trying to convince us that he is healthy. Not saying that my balance at 78 is a’okay, but this was embarrassing.
>> but definitely the stupidest president of all times.
Joseph Stolen is an idiot.
Maybe they will feed the Bidenians lies designed to coax the Iranians into a trap or two.
Iran will be briefed on the meeting by Congressional Democrats within 48 hours of its ending.
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