You are probably right. But Trump wouldn’t say he was bowing out at least until after the midterms, because he wants to maintain his clout to affect the outcome.
A lot demands on how DeSantis re-election campaign goes. It’s going to be a severe test, as the DNC and Media are going to come after him with guns blazing.
But, if he survives, I think he’s good to go in 2024.