Posted on 04/19/2021 9:17:19 AM PDT by BeauBo
(President Trump's Operation Warp Speed Update)
(Over 50% of Adults Have Now Had a First Shot - it can't be much longer, till COVID begins to collapse)
Total Vaccine Doses Delivered: 264,505,725 (17,641,150 J&J)
Administered: 209,406,814 (7,935,549 J&J)
People Vaccinated, At Least One Dose: 131,247,546
Fully Vaccinated: 84,263,408
(Excerpt) Read more at covid.cdc.gov ...
Doses Delivered: 6,000 (Weekend pause) (No J&J - pause in effect)
Total Administered: 3.5 million (Strong) (33,000 J&J - Despite the recommended pause)
New People Receiving 1st Dose: 1.8 Million (OK)
People Fully Vaccinated: 1.8 Million (Strong)
Strong inventories on hand (55 million).
% Total Population with at least a First Shot: 39.5% (up 0.5)
Those ≥ 18 Years of Age (Adults): 50.4% (up 0.7)
Those ≥ 65 Years of Age: 81% (up 0.3) (65.9% Fully Vaccinated - up 0.6)
Cases and New Hospitalizations going down slightly, and Deaths flat on this report (3nd day in a row). The latest wave may have crested. Good chance that numbers will begin their final descent.
I am very interested in seeing what happens to the number of strokes people suffer.
Vaccination numbers mean nothing to Fauci. Keep wearing your masks! It’s the new normal, get used to it!
I have the feeling sometimes that we will always have masks surrounding us now. Way to go, bed-wetters!
Sigh, just venting.
Once this shot is FDA approved (not EUA approved), I’ll look at it....until then, no chance in hell!
I have never put a mask on. And never will. This whole thing is more stupid than I can stand. People need to just stand up for themselves. If a store or restaurant requires a mask stay out. No airplanes. Just boycott stupid. When they give up on it, we will come back.
Yes.
“CDC | Data as of: April 18, 2021 6:00am ET. Posted: Sunday, April 18, 2021 1:27 PM ET”
You should see some new numbers to report sometime today.
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
“I am very interested in seeing what happens to the number of strokes people suffer.”
If it was going to be a common effect, we surely would have heard about it by now.
Trials started over a year ago, we are approaching a billion doses administered around the World, and all kinds of people and Governments have been going over the data with a fine tooth comb.
The folks who are determined to find a problem, seem to be scraping the bottom of the barrel, with a one in a million blood clot problem the leading issue being flogged.
“Once this shot is FDA approved (not EUA approved), I’ll look at it”
That will require a few years. 2023 at the earliest, upon completion of the 30 month monitoring programs. Even that would be a fast track, compared to standard procedures.
The design of the formal authorization process requires years of monitoring. That is why they have the alternative process for EUA. Sometimes it is unreasonable to wait that long.
It is not uncommon for drugs to be approved for limited use, while they go through the process for full approval.
“You should see some new numbers to report sometime today.”
This is a catch up post for yesterday, for the record.
I was out playing.
Had a good time.
I recently discussed mask wearing with a friend who is a hairdresser. She told me she has many clients that say they plan to still wear their masks even after mandates are lifted, because they haven’t gotten sick much this whole time, and they attribute this to wearing masks. So I think there will remain a portion of people who will retain them for years and years to come.
Going out to play is good for health. :)
Those 2 numbers above is about 110 million total, and if herd immunity is about 231 million (70% of 330 million), we are about 121 mullion away from HI Day.
With 3.5 million doses administered every week day, that leaves about 7 weeks at the short end and 12 weeks at the long end. Is that a good guess?
It would seem to me that it's about time for somebody in a position of authority to start a "Countdown to Herd Immunity" clock. Time to apply Science to the end of this.
Other people can wear post-COVID masks if they like. It doesn’t bother me one way or another.
Certain types of hormonal birth control pills have been linked to blood clots in women at a rate of ~1 in 1,000. That makes the J&J vaccine over 1,000 times less likely to cause clots than fully FDA approved products on the open market.
HIT is a function of R0. With the variants currently circulating, best guess is R0 is somewhere around 4.5 - 5. HIT is 1-1/R0, or roughly 78% - 80%. Call it 80% to be safe, which for a population of 330 million is 264 million. Those who’ve had mild or asymptomatic cases are likely pretty safe from the April 2020 variant, but the South Africa and Brazil variants can still be a problem for them. Those who’ve had severe illness have enough neutralizing antibodies that it’s unlikely any of the variants known today would be an issue, so we can include them in the immune category.
Keep in mind as well that reaching the Herd Immunity Threshold doesn’t mean that the virus disappears. It means that the number of infected persons will begin to dwindle toward zero because Rt (current rate of infection) remains below 1. Also, looking at the US nationally can be a little bit deceiving. Some areas will reach HIT before others, so while I fully expect we’ll see the US achieve HIT by July on a national level, we’ll still see some smaller, isolated outbreaks in some places. That doesn’t mean we aren’t winning the war; it’s normal and expected.
July 4 would be a great target date, at least to start. It would be at the short end of the 7-12 week range, but very symbolic for some people in this country.
I think early July is reasonable at this point. Keep in mind there’s nothing to tell us when we’ve reached HIT. Nothing visibly changes the day we get there. However, the further beyond HIT we go, the faster new cases and new deaths drop. That SHOULD prompt major rollbacks in COVID-19 mitigation policies, ending mask mandates and the rest of the nonsense we’ve been dealing with for a while now.
I’m looking forward to getting back to normal and we get there when everyone has the confidence that this thing is behind us. President Trump understood that, which is why he put Operation Warp Speed in motion. He saved us several months - if not a year or two - of having to deal with all the problems of COVID-19; both from the disease itself as well as from the failed political response of state and local governments.
Covid is a LIE, it is about CONTROL, it is the FLU..PERIOD
CDC Violated Law to Inflate COVID Cases and Fatalities
Dr. Henry Ealy and his team started looking at CDC data on COVID-19 cases and fatalities in mid-March 2020, quickly realizing the agency was vastly exaggerating fatalities
Over-reporting of fatalities was enabled by a March 2020 change in how cause of death is reported on death certificates. Rather than listing COVID-19 as a contributing cause in cases where people died from other underlying conditions, it was to be listed as the primary cause
As of August 23, 2020, the CDC reported 161,392 fatalities caused by COVID-19. Had the long-standing, original guidelines for death reporting been used, there would have only been 9,684 total fatalities due to COVID-19
The CDC violated federal law, as the Paperwork Reduction Act requires data collection and publication to be overseen by the Office of Management and Budget. Proposed changes must be published in the Federal Register and be open to public comment. None of these transparency rules were followed
We don’t yet know who was responsible for altering the reporting rules in violation of federal law. To identify the culprits, formal grand jury investigation petitions have been sent to all U.S. attorneys and the U.S. Department of Justice, requesting a thorough, independent and transparent investigation; a direct public effort to gather signatures also commenced on the one-year anniversary of the CDC reporting change
“when does the CDC expect to reach her immunity in the US?”
I have not heard them state publicly, but the indicators that I have seen (like the President’s prepared remarks, indicating that we should be celebrating openly by July 4th), seem to agree with 2aProtectsTheRest’s assessment.
By the end of June, the turnaround should be undeniable.
I think that the flattening of the recent monthlong small wall, is in fact the transmission sputtering out, from the growing widespread immunity.
I’d say that we are entering into the window of herd immunity now. It will get stronger, week after week, from now on.
It is just starting to bend the curve down now, but Israel’s experience shows that we can expect to enter a period where new cases will start dropping 50% per week. Then more folks will be saying that this must be herd immunity.
The vaccine program is going to keep accelerating, and quickly blow by the minimum threshold to slow the spread. It is going to pound it down hard through May and June.
It will be fun to watch.
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