China? DUhhhh! Covid Bio weapon. Russia? Nothing...
China will wait—til disorder comes to America. A few dollars to radicals, a new virus, a few more tons of drugs. and American paper tiger will fold into a running dog capitalist kulak. Then they will move on those rocks. Japan will not risk war over them, nor will Manila. No one will risk war when China takes the islands next to Taiwan. The pot boils and the frog sleeps. Biden will talk all tough and send a few ships to sail, maybe some troops to Kiev—but its all theater. When Putin moves it will only be when he has a strong hand to play. War by Summer.