Posted on 03/01/2021 10:52:55 AM PST by BeauBo
Total Vaccine Doses Delivered: 96,402,490
Receiving 1 or More Doses: 50,732,997
Receiving 2 Doses: 25,466,405
(Excerpt) Read more at covid.cdc.gov ...
Doses Delivered: None - now common on the weekends.
People Receiving 1st Dose: 961,000 (a normal day - not hot for a weekend however)
People Receiving 2nd Dose: 686,000 (an OK day - a bit weak)
Passed two thresholds yesterday - 50 million first shots, and 25 million second shots.
Just about 20% of US adults (over 18 years old) have now gotten a first shot, and about 10% have finished their second shot.
About 60% of Americans 75 or older have had their first shot.
About 47% of those 65 or older have had a first shot (including all those over 75).
No indication yet of how CDC will report on the new single shot vaccine. They probably should count them separately, to avoid confusion with the existing fist shot/second shot totals. We will likely see how they will report on the new vaccine, tomorrow or the next day.
If 20% of US adults have at least one shot, and over 10% have antibodies from exposure (it’s probably a lot higher) then assuming there may be some overlap in the two groups, at least 1/4th of the population has limited immunity. We really should start to see case numbers declining precipitously soon.
With the EUA approval of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, we should see within a month a major increase in the number of people inoculated. Especially people in the first responder, food service industry and retail industry sectors.
The estimates of how many Americans have already acquired immunity through exposure, range between 1/3 and 2/3rds of the population.
COVID-19 antibodies in the blood only persist (to be detectable by the test) for a month or two after infection, so blood testing to estimate asymptomatic (or other unconfirmed cases) can only offer a snapshot in time, rather than the cumulative total.
T cell memory will still provide those previously exposed with an enhanced immune response for a longer time, but we don’t yet know how long that will last for COVID-19. For some diseases, T cell memory lasts just a few years. Some survivors of the Spanish flu however, evidenced the capability to mount an immune response to it, almost 100 years later.
“With the EUA approval of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, we should see within a month a major increase in the number of people inoculated.”
We are looking at about twice the total vaccination capacity in March, as compared to February. We were running about 40 million shots of 2-dose vaccine in Feb. March is on track for 55 million shots of 2-dose, plus 20 million one dose.
Further big increases are already in the works, over the next few months. New producers (Novavax and AstraZeneca) seem on track for April authorization, and existing producers plan to continue ramping up their deliveries.
In addition to increasing supply, we are working down the priority list, which will change the nature of the problem.
At first, health care workers were getting the majority of the shots available. As they got done (and supply grew), those over 65 years old became the biggest recipients of the current supply.
It looks like we are on track for completing the bulk of their first shots during April, opening up more of the supply for lower priority recipients.
Once the older and at risk population get vaccinated, there is not much of a Public Health issue left (deaths, hospital utilization).
“....then assuming there may be some overlap in the two groups, at least 1/4th of the population has limited immunity. We really should start to see case numbers declining precipitously soon.”
Have you not been paying attention? It has been for weeks now.
That was the drop after the holiday spike. It’s the third case spike we’ve had. We’ve returned to a baseline now of about 70,000 new cases per day and it’s been steady there for over a week.
We will not see new case numbers reliable decline until sometime in July when Rt drops below 1 after reaching the Herd Immunity Threshold. Israel will see major drops. They’ve been very efficient at getting their people inoculated quickly. Sadly, we’re at the mercy of the state governors.
I’ll stick with beer. I do my first dose every Friday and the second dose every Saturday. Seems to be working so far.
“I’ll “stick” with beer.”
Little pun there, with the vaccine “injections”.
Yep, 3 and 7-day moving averages bottomed out at 70,000 new daily cases on the 19th and haven’t moved since then. We’ve hit our “new normal” for now I think. It might move around a bit here and there, but I think we’ll see it stay pretty steady for a while.
Everything I’m seeing still tells me we’ll see Rt <1 sometime in July. That’s when we see the inexorable decline of new cases.
“Everything I’m seeing still tells me we’ll see Rt <1 sometime in July.”
I know that you convincingly laid out that case before, but would you be so kind as to briefly summarize - why July?
Sure, it’s really just a numbers game. The Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT) is based on the basic reproductive number (R0), which essentially is just how many people a disease will spread to - on average - with a population where no one has immunity. Rt is the rate of spread at a given time and varies. HIT is calculated as 1-1/R0. R0 for seasonal flu is 0.9-1.2. R0 for measles is 12-18 (which is insanely contagious). The April 2020 variant of SARS-CoV-2 has an R0 of 2.5. That HIT formula tells us that Rt will be below 1 once 60% of the population is inoculated either through disease/recovery or vaccination (1-1/2.5 = 0.6). The UK and South African variants (and those similar to them) have R0 values somewhere between 4.3 and 5.7, so 77-82%.
Working backwards from the official number of deaths and the Infection Fatality Rate of 0.65% we get 81 million resolved infections. Add the infections that haven’t resolved (those of the past two weeks) and we get another ~1 million. We’ll assume those people are - largely - immune (some debate about the South African variant being a problem for those who had a mild or asymptomatic infection, but there’s no hard data on that yet and no clear problem there at this time).
Vaccinations have another ~51 million covered (one dose provides significant protection and they’re on a short list to get the second one). However, we know there’s going to be overlap there, so let’s assume 75% of those are new, giving a total inoculated to date of ~120 million (82 million from infection + ~38 million vaccinated who haven’t already been infected previously).
Next take the rate of new infections, along with the fluctuations from historic patterns, add to it the rate for vaccinations with some assumptions about continued ramp-up, and you land either at the beginning of July or the end of July depending on how you tweak the assumptions. But unless you take wild and crazy liberties with the rates, you always wind up in July.
Covid is a LIE, it is a HOAX, it is the FLU...PERIOD!
Women recently injected with experimental covid vaccines are showing symptoms of BREAST CANCER
Monday, March 01, 2021 by: Lance D Johnson
https://www.naturalnews.com/2021-03-01-women-injected-covid-vaccines-symptoms-breast-cancer.html
Covid is a LIE, it is a HOAX, it is the FLU...PERIOD!
Situation Update, Mar. 1st – Vaccine depopulation weapons and the GOP’s pro-vaccine stance against humanity
Monday, March 01, 2021 by: Mike Adams
Covid is a LIE, it is a HOAX, it is the FLU...PERIOD!
“Listen, all we have to do is RE-BRAND the flu. It’s that simple. We can take over the entire world in a matter of weeks. And they’ll all fall for it, and not a single shot will be fired.”
As the above graph shows, new cases have dropped in 6 weeks from over 300,000/day to a bit over 60,000/day ave.
I would classify that as a “precipitous drop”.
Have you seen this from the CDC?: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html
They estimate that at the end of last year, 83 million had been infected.
The also have links to a bunch of different organizations that have been doing modeling and forecasts.
I agree that these vaccines are being rushed out way too soon without adequate testing. I am unsure about the effects of the mRNA vaccines Pfizer and Moderna have used. That being said, overblown claims that, if shown to be false, will be used against vaccine skepticism.
The 3-day moving average for new cases stabilized at 70,000 February 15th. It has since fluctuated between 64,000 and 77,000, primarily due to weekend reporting policies between different jurisdictions. The 7-day moving average hit 70,000 (technically 72,728) on February 19th. It’s been between 69,000 and 71,000 since then.
Yes, we dropped significantly from the peak of new cases (255,000 7-day moving average as of Jan 11th). But that drop appears to be done. We’ve been at a stable baseline for about 2 weeks.
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