Do Lockdowns Work? Only If You Lock the Borders Down, Too

Quillette ^ | February 15, 2020 | Noah Carl

[karpov]

For almost a year, the central policy debate in most Western countries has been whether—and for how long—to impose lockdowns. Advocates of stringent lockdowns argue that measures such as stay-at-home orders and forced closures of businesses are necessary to save lives and prevent health-care systems from being overwhelmed. So-called “lockdown sceptics,” on the other hand, argue either that such measures are ineffective, or that their benefits are outweighed by the associated social and economic costs; and that a focussed protection strategy is preferable. (The term “lockdown,” as I am using it, does not encompass all non-pharmaceutical interventions. In particular, I am excluding non-onerous, common-sense measures like asking symptomatic individuals to self-isolate, encouraging vulnerable people to work from home, and restricting large indoor gatherings.)

The evidence suggests that lockdowns have been effective, but only when they were combined with strict border controls. Looking across the Western world—Europe, the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand—just five countries have kept the rate of confirmed COVID-19 deaths below 300 per million. Those five are: Iceland, Norway, Finland, Australia, and New Zealand. Note that in every case, the per capita rate isn’t just below 300 per million, but (as of this writing) below 150 per million.

All five are wealthy, geographically peripheral countries with low population densities. Three are islands. The other two, Finland and Norway, have land borders that run mostly through remote wilderness, punctuated by a few easily monitored points of road and rail entry. The largest cities in these two countries, Helsinki and Oslo, contain only about 600,000 people each, and are dwarfed by true international hubs such as London, Paris, Madrid, Rome, and New York (all of which became COVID-19 hot spots). So each of the five successful countries had a head start in responding to the pandemic.

[EvilCapitalist]

Can’t do that, those are future democrat voter, I mean Americans.

[Hillarys Gate Cult]

Illegal aliens are immune to COVID-19, same as looters and rioters.

[Little Ray]

Why does anyone think the lockdowns and masks are about the Chicom Flu?
It’s about power and establishing a precedent.
They can now claim the power do just about anything under the color of an emergency.

[bk1000]

How can anyone accept “lockdowns” with the border wide open? Fight back.

[webheart]

They don’t need to lock down borders. The migrants will wait until after the pandemic to seek asylum.