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[Last time. Hima went up against an island, it was Japan and they made China its beeotch.]

That occurred in the course of a civil war in which the Nationalists were a motley bunch of independent rulers only nominally tied to a central government *and* fighting the Communists. Today, China is, for better or worse, a unified country, with the resources of a continental-scale power to call upon.

[For over 70 years, China has been threatening Taiwan. Trust me, they havent just been doing nothing during that time.]

My issue with the author isn’t that I think the Chinese would simply walk over Taiwan’s defenses. It’s that those defenses have always depended upon superior weaponry. Today, thanks to limits placed on exports to Taiwan due to Chinese pressure, Taiwan’s qualitative edge has been severely eroded.

And the idea that insurgency is even possible under Chinese rule is idiotic. If the Chinese manage to occupy the country, it’s all over. They’ll simply starve the rebels out.

Re preparation, Taiwan has downgraded its defenses even as China has upgraded its offensive capabilities. Taiwanese governments on both sides of the aisle have talked tough while taking an axe to defense spending. Taiwan’s defense spending in dollar terms peaked in 1992:

https://tradingeconomics.com/taiwan/military-expenditure

That number has gone down 1/3 since that year. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s economy has tripled in size:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_and_projected_GDP_(nominal)#IMF_estimates_between_1990_and_1999
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_and_projected_GDP_(nominal)#IMF_estimates_between_2010_and_2019

Whereas US defense expenditures, while lower as a % of national production than during the Cold War, are nonetheless, in dollar terms, double 1992 levels, to account for inflation. Whereas Taiwan, with a mortal enemy across just 100 miles of water, chose to close its eyes in the face of China’s massive buildup, and not only not increase military spending, but actually decrease it.