If the pipeline does not go through, Canada will lose billions of dollars and, the tar sands oil will probably never be tapped. The reason for this is American fracked oil is almost like water. It is very easy to refine. The Canadian oil is much heavier and it requires a different refining process. That means entirely different machinery.
If there is no pipeline then all of the current refining capacity will be switched over to refine only the light sweet crude produced in the United States. In other words, the ability to refine Canadian oil will go away. Permanently.
I suppose Canada could build a refinery on site that handles their low grade oil. Then they could build a pipeline to take it to ports on the West Coast. But my guess is the Green nuts in Canada will prevent that from happening. The path of least political resistance was a pipeline through the US to refiners in Texas, which can handle that low grade.
The window of opportunity to build the pipeline is probably closed. Canada, due to demographic decline, will shortly be out of tax money and loan money. This signals a general decline in Canada’s ability to maintain the welfare state they have built up. The tar sands were the last opportunity. Barring a sudden discovery of gold, Canada is in for some very bad times.
Here is an interesting presentation on the Canadian demographic problem. The pipeline could have resolved much of their capital problem.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9zH1dWeKE0
I read a while back that if the Keystone pipeline was stopped, Canada was going to build a pipe line to the Pacific and ship the oil to China. So by Xiden’s actions, China gets the oil and the USA does not. Even though a bunch of American union workers get screwed by the deal.
My tag line applies here.