The issue is not how many people are leaving, it is _who_ are leaving.
Big taxpayers, that is who is leaving.
The FSA is sticking around... (Free S&^% Army :-) )
The issue is not how many people are leaving, it is _who_ are leaving.
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And where are they going. To Florida and Texas from NY and Cal to turn red states blue.
1900s Boston mayor stumbled upon "The Curley Effect":
"James Michael Curley, a four-time mayor of Boston, used wasteful redistribution to his poor Irish constituents and incendiary rhetoric to encourage richer citizens to emigrate from Boston, thereby shaping the electorate in his favor. As a consequence, Boston stagnated, but Curley kept winning elections."
The Curley Effect: The Economics of Shaping the Electorate https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/glaeser/files/curley_effect_1.pdf