Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: alexander_busek
No, sorry, that is a far too simplistic view. The actual math is quite different.

Then how would it be 55x worse than my back of the envelope estimate? Even if COVID killed infants rather than old people, then a 0.1% death rate would amount to only a 0.1% reduction in average life span or about 0.08 years.

Are there other effects like people putting off cancer diagnostics and treatment? Are some people permanently crippled by COVID and will die early? Yes, certainly for both, but I want numbers other than tossing out a 1.13 year reduction in lifespan without explaining it.

This reminds me of the Fair Tax where my numbers did not come anywhere close to the official ones from proponents. It turned out they had hidden a major assumption in their calculations.

32 posted on 01/15/2021 10:19:43 AM PST by KarlInOhio (The greatest threat to world freedom is the Chinese Communist Party and Joe Biden is their puppet.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies ]


To: KarlInOhio
Then how would it be 55x worse than my back of the envelope estimate? Even if COVID killed infants rather than old people, then a 0.1% death rate would amount to only a 0.1% reduction in average life span or about 0.08 years.

Bear in mind that this is not about the total loss of years of life, but rather about the reduction in average life-span for the duration of the Corona Crisis.

I.e., it is not a permanent reduction in life-expectancy - as might be expected from, e.g., a general, large-scale, and lasting change in smoking rates, obesity rates, etc.

Remember that this "life expectancy" is a mathematical construct. Even if - between January of 2020 and July of 2021 - the virus killed EVERYONE over the age of 80 (or EVERYONE between the ages of 33 and 34), as long as the pandemic petered out in mid-2021, then the average life-expectancy would return to normal in 2022 (or even actually rise because a lot of "deadwood" would have been "cleared out").

Your "calculations" don't take that into account.

Regards,

33 posted on 01/15/2021 10:28:13 AM PST by alexander_busek (Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson