Iran will get their arses handed to them. Don’t mess with ROK troops.
“Iran will get their arses handed to them. Don’t mess with ROK troops.”
What we’re talking about is power projection. South Korea is focused, for the most part, on nearby targets. The idea of sending potentially thousands of troops, equipment and ships thousands of miles to free a tanker in the back yard of one of the larger militaries in a bad neighborhood was never part of their strategic thinking. Assuming by some miracle all the South Koreans shout, in farsi, “Hey! Squirrel!” and the entire Iranian military simultaneously looks away and the SK’s snatch back the tanker, what then? How will they protect next month’s tanker shipment? And, the one after that and the one after that?
The US has left the region for the most part. The US will no longer be playing the role of world policeman. That means Iran can start collecting “insurance” money for every ship from someone who can’t otherwise project power.
The Saudis have a huge stake in this, but I suspect they will do nothing to provoke Iran as Iran is spoiling for an excuse to reduce the Saudi’s oil facilities to rubble. Since Iran isn’t exporting oil they have little of consequence that the Saudis can strike back at.
Iran is the school bully picking on the tiny rich kid. The tiny rich kid will lose his lunch money every day. They will pay to protect their shipments as the British Empire payed the Barberi pirates to protect their shipments. While the US went over to Africa and won, they had to come up with a fleet capable of it first.
Now, the SK’s could get creative and, say, mine all the Iranian harbors so that nothing of consequence can move until the Iranians agree to let them alone. But the inclination of free nations is to appease because it’s profits that count and who knows what Iran might do in response.
I don’t see either Trump or Biden getting too involved. I do see that Saudi Arabia has to take action to switch their shipments to a safer venue. This is why there is a war in Syria. It was the Saudi’s attempt to gain access routes to pipe their products to the Mediterranean. Boy, did that backfire. There is a pipeline to the Red Sea, but the strait there could be closed with just one fishing smack dropping a couple of mines in the water.
If Iran gets away with this, then all the smaller nations in Asia are well and truly (past tense F-word.)
We might be about to find out if either of them are any good. It’s kinda like the mountain terrain set-to with the Chinese and Indians. Mexican standoff is predicted from this keyboard anyway.
“ Iran will get their arses handed to them. Don’t mess with ROK troops.”
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This. They don’t have any idea who they are screwing with - the SKs don’t have the luxury of allowing themselves to be seen as soft, as they will be invaded a few weeks after the Norks come to that conclusion. Iran is going to soon have a bunch more martyrs.