Posted on 11/19/2020 9:19:45 AM PST by buwaya
There is a lot of confusion about whether Covid is killing people or not, about the effect of the "cold and flu" season in general, about the often misleading stream of data about test results, and etc.
There is only one complete, unmixed, and incontrovertible fact, and that is death. Have deaths increased due to Covid, where is the current Covid situation vs "normal life", or rather normal death, and what can we expect going forward?
The best way to see this whole thing in context vs the pattern of “normal” death rates is here - total deaths taken from civil records. Unfortunately it is lagged at least three weeks.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
Scroll down a bit to get to the chart. The blue bars are ACTUAL deaths (”predicted” is confusing and inaccurate). Throw out the last blue bar - that week is incomplete. The first reasonably complete data is for the week of Oct 31.
If Covid is going to be this years new flu, it will first be obvious in this chart/dataset.
Even deaths are flawed as the nature of the lockdown itself leads to higher death rates. It is an error to attribute all excess deaths to COVID-19
But if the weekly deaths in the CDC data occurred at the same time the hospitals said people were dying of corona, I think it’s a pretty robust signature.
I’ve actually looked at this data, and I am fairly satsified that yes, people really are dying of corona above and beyond other diseases and ailments this year - in other words, the signal is showing up. And the only reason I did this anlaysis was that I was suspicious, like many of you are.
How many of the excess deaths are suicides and drug overdoses brought on by the lockdowns?
Have u also looked at demographics? Even with no Corona deaths were going to go up because mean age of the population has gone up. The cdc doesn’t consider this - they just look at previous year deaths or mean of previous 5 year deaths. Either do this or look at other nations. Yes - people have died from Coronavirus- but it is overstated.
Reasonable analysis. However, you are trusting government data. Is that reliable? Hmmmm.....govt. data. State govt. voting data shows Biden winning the 2020 election.
This assumes the guy dying in a car wreck isn’t marked as a covid death (he is). So much (deliberate) obfuscation in the covid “death” figures that the data is utterly meaningless.
Well, by doggie, if that is not what is happening.
Now, why would they do that? Extending a "pandemic" beyond its scientific status?
Because they want us clamoring for their vaccines when they have trained us to be very afraid of coughing and sniffling, for fear we just might be getting the dreaded COVID for which there is a 99.4% survival rate.
Yes, the death rate is going up due to demographics, but not at this pace at all. Look at the earlier data and you will see the whole trace creeping up.
You can look at other nations - most of Europe does this mortality reporting. Spain does an exceptional job.
https://momo.isciii.es/public/momo/dashboard/momo_dashboard.html
But the whole point of my post is to show people data that is not meaningless. This is simply death.
This year is exceptional, it does not fit a normal pattern, as is obvious from the chart. And you can extend the chart back for more years.
This does not mean that the extreme measure have not in themselves contributed to the death rate. Death is death by whatever means. But I doubt that the additional deaths as reaction to Covid are anything close to the direct and “complicating” effect of Covid.
Oh, I see your point now. It’s a good approach. Presumably we’d see SKYROCKETING total death stats (i.e. from all causes) year-on-year if Covid is the scourge it’s made out to be. But we don’t. So, hmmmm...
Good point!
It's sad that data for the US, which used to have the most reliable data in the world, is now becoming as bad as the old Soviet Union propaganda.
I don’t know if they have weeekly data on suicides yet. Also, as some have pointed out, maybe we can’t trust the CDC and NIH data anymore, given the move toward such blatant propagandizing?
I’ve heard that the reporting entity gets paid for each case reported and even more for each death.
If true, who gets paid and what do they do with that money?
1) It’s an analysis of deaths. Not lockdowns. Not response to the virus. It’s an analysis ONLY of the effects of the virus. It has killed a lot of people.
2) Suicides have been rising for years. Subtract that growth rate before blaming virus response.
3) From day 1, excess deaths have been the gold standard. Cases have agenda. Even CoVid death numbers can have agenda re hospital reimbursement. But excess deaths of ALL CAUSES is a pretty clean number.
4)Excess deaths outnumber the official CoVid count by rather a lot. This is not suicides or alcohol. Those numbers are in line with multi year growth rates. Rather, almost certainly, Covid deaths are undercounted because of the very common scenario of the old people who live alone, get sick, and try to tough it out. They die somewhat suddenly and days later the stink brings an ambulance. Straight to the morgue. No Covid test. Thus huge undercounting.
5) Bubonic plague wiped out the economies of Europe in the 1300s. The 100 years war derived largely from plague. What is happening is not new. Very common in history.
You can’t report more deaths than there actually are.
Or it would be an exceptional conspiracy to, basically, fake people that never were, just in order to report them dead.
The cause of death can certainly be massaged, let us say. But just counting the dead should be some sort of check on this. On the whole, it seems there has been some under-reporting, not over. The same seems to be true in Europe based on their own civil records.
FYI the death count for 65+ is on track to add 15% to typical year deaths.
At birth, now, life expectancy is late 70s.
An 85 yr old still has several years of life expectancy because he or she dodged many early killers that are in the “at birth” number.
A 70 yr old has quite a lot of life expectancy left, and ditto 65.
So many years are being lost to this 15% increase in elderly deaths that the overall society life expectancy, at birth, is likely going to lose a year or two, or three. Society will have to decide to tolerate that, or not. Not means restrictions.
The extra life-years saved by not having children dying more than makes up for the life-years lost in the very old.
The collapse in child-youth deaths in 2020 is indeed a fascinating phenomenon, and very rarely mentioned.
It would make an interesting news story.
There was, for a while, a chart of this in the US Coronavirus wiki. You can get a data dump on this from the CDC site I posted above.
Its not US-only either.
Interesting thought, but the data does not show it.
The curve for <25 is pretty flat and aligned with the multi year average.
The population under 18 is 22%. So under 14 the % is lower. Population over 65 is about 16%, probably the same as <14.
So any negative amounts for the under 14 cohort would face the substantial above average deaths for 65+. It does not show on the charts. Elderly excess deaths are far beyond any negative excess for < 14. There’s just too few death numbers for the <14 cohort to offset the excess 65+.
So. . . no, we’re going to lose societal life expectancy. Rather a lot of it.
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