[Lockbox]

Think of the red line as a base line of those who only vote for all Republicans candidates on the ballot. Dots above are picked up votes for Trump. Those came from independents and Democrats. Dots below are Republicans voting for Biden. So how did areas start voting for Biden when those areas reached 25% Republican straight voters? And the Biden voting increased as the area became more Republican. That is the point of the correlation.

The theory is this is when the transfer votes to Biden came from.

[thecodont]

I know this is going to sound weird, but do you know of, or have you heard of even anecdotally, a person who goes in to vote in a general election (after having been subject to a big “GO VOTE” campaign at their place of employment for example), and this person is not a thoughtful or deliberate voter, he (or she) generally avoids the primary and midterm elections, and does not study the downballot races or the state propositions or local measures, but votes for one thing only and that is for the office of president? Just that one office? And then he can grab his “I voted” sticker to show his neighbors or boss. Does that even sound reasonable?