GREAT analysis, TexasGurl! I do have a couple of quibs:
1. In CA-39 (Young Kim taking on PowerBall Cisneros), almost 319,000 votes have been tabulated in that district, where a bit over 263,000 were cast in 2016 (and 244,000 in 2018). I wouldn’t rely on adjoining districts for an estimate of the total turnout: The CA-39 is 33% Hispanic and 29% Asian, so I assume that it’s Voting Age Citizen Population can’t be anywhere near as high as in the Rohrabacher-Rouda-Steel CA-48 (which is only 20% Hispanic and 18% Asian and where they’ve already counted 385,000 votes). I don’t think that there are as many votes left to count as you are assuming; if I’m right, it bodes well for Young Kim.
2. In NJ-07, I don’t believe that it is late-arriving mail-in votes that are decreasing Malinowski’s margin, but the Election Day vote. NJ had the audacity to declare before Election Day that they wouldn’t start counting the Election Day vote until a week later, which is why the RATs all took early leads and held them for a week. Not only does Kean have a better chance of overtaking Malinowski than the media assume, but NJ-03, NJ-05 and NJ-11 will end up far closer than what people assumed when NJ posted its vote count. It is absurd that the media played pretended that NJ’s vote results were anything other than cherry-picked propaganda.
I’m nearly certain Kim won after the last updates. Kim just won 59% in San Bernardino and she’s now leading by 4194.
Extrapolating LA County remaining ballots (136k) to the district (like 1.9% of LA County votes), suggests there are like 2700 votes in LA County left. This could be off by a little bit, but likely not a ton. The late ballots in San Bernardino have heavily favored Kim, and Kim is up by >4k.
SLC just dumped a ton of ballots and McAdams only picked up 83 net votes. I think they have to be close to done and Owens has won.