Statistical detection of systematic election irregularities (Vote fraud analytics)

Democratic societies are built around the principle of free and fair elections, and that each citizen’s vote should count equally. National elections can be regarded as large-scale social experiments, where people are grouped into usually large numbers of electoral districts and vote according to their preferences. The large number of samples implies statistical consequences for the polling results, which can be used to identify election irregularities. Using a suitable data representation, we find that vote distributions of elections with alleged fraud show a kurtosis substantially exceeding the kurtosis of normal elections, depending on the level of data aggregation. As an example, we show that reported irregularities in recent Russian elections are, indeed, well-explained by systematic ballot stuffing. We develop a parametric model quantifying the extent to which fraudulent mechanisms are present. We formulate a parametric test detecting these statistical properties in election results. Remarkably, this technique produces robust outcomes with respect to the resolution of the data and therefore, allows for cross-country comparisons.

“Benford’s law is not foolproof, there are ways to defeat it, though it does require some creativity by someone who knows Benfords law.”

If you read the abstract I posted and the entire linked article if you wish, you’ll see this method is novel and not using Benford’s Law.

There are multiple approaches and consistent results from multiple methods provide stronger evidence.

I would imagine most electric bills are less than $200. That leaves a lot of opportunity for a bill that starts with a 1, less so for a 9. Many streets may only go a few blocks, but most will have 100 block. There are a lot more house prices in the $100,000 range than in the $900,000 range.

In this case, I assume most precincts are of a similar size, lets say 1,000 voters. In such a scenario, you wouldn’t really expect a 1 to occur all that frequently. Especially if average turnout is around 70%.

The thing with Benford analysis in regards to elections would be to look at a typical spread in a "normal" election and see if it conforms to Benford or not. I think I read that analysis of elections showed that Benford's law mostly holds true...

What would be interesting to see is if, within a state, you have conforming precinct totals in the conservative run areas, but non-conforming in the liberal run areas. You would not expect to see a difference like that between neighborhoods, just based on who's in charge. Unless of course the fix is in.

The key there is to try and compare apples to apples as much as possible, where the only variable is who counts the votes. If Benford shows some unusual things in one compared to the other, it's almost a guarantee that the #'s are being tinkered with. It's at least enough to start investigating and trying to figure out the how and why. Forensic accounting involving financial fraud will do this exact same thing. They might not know if there's any funny business on the surface, but they crunch the #'s and see something is wrong compared to other businesses, and that's enough for them to look deeper for actual evidence of wrongdoing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ficae6x1Q5A&feature=youtu.be&t=1992

how it can be hacked..unfortunately fbi and cisa were not interested..

go to 34 minutes if you dont want to watch all of it..
question is can it be proven?

atty dershowitz was on newsmax this morning saying to get courts involved it must be large wholesale fraud that could affect the result not a few people here and there

In Wisconsin, Biden had over 100K votes more than the sum of all Dem House candidates.

I added up all the votes for the eight Wisconsin House districts and came up with 1,567,734 votes for the Democrat, between the eight of them. Biden got 1,630,570 votes, for a difference of 62,836. That means 3.85 percent of the votes cast for Biden did not include a vote for the Democrat House candidate.

By contrast, there were 50,254 more votes for Republican House candidates than there were for President Trump. 1,610,030 votes for President Trump and 1,660,284 votes for Rep candidates.

In the end, there were 3,240,600 votes cast for President Trump and Joe Biden and there were 3,228,018 votes cast for Dem and Rep candidates for the eight House seats, a difference of 12,582. There were also 7911 votes cast for a third party candidate, so now there are only 4671 people who voted for President, but did not vote for a House candidate.

I'll let other draw their own conclusions. BTW, all these numbers are from Wisconsin's official election tally.

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