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I did some number crunching yesterday, going back to pres elections to 1996, hoping to understand the impact of party line voting in senate races when there is a POTUS election.

i.e the effect of coattails

I found that in 1996 and 2000, the average differential between senate races and potus races in all 50 states, was less than 7%. in more recent elections....around 5%.

I did not do HOR races, as there is too much data. I made an assumption that the % would be roughly the same.

in other words, people are less inclined to split their vote across party lines since 2004 than they were going back to 1996

I still have to calculate the confidence intervals, but if there is more than a 5% differential in these states between potus votes and senate votes, across party lines, then there is some serious fraud going on. no way that percentage would change magically in 2020