I don’t know where you got your 2016 numbers, but you are wrong.
2016 Maricopa:
Trump 747,361 46.45%
Hilliary! 702,907 43.69%
Others 158,607 9.86%
Total 1,608,875
I got it from a Politico map of 2016 click the map is clickable so click on Maricopa county and it will give you results and it says 100% reporting
https://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/arizona/
I don’t know where you got your 2016 numbers, but you are wrong.
2016 Maricopa:
Trump 747,361 46.45%
Hilliary! 702,907 43.69%
Others 158,607 9.86%
Total 1,608,875
The thing is Trump has been under his 2016 numbers in the affluent suburbs. Hard to see him making up a lot of ground and winning AZ given that. In the end the election could be a one-two knockout punch of voter fraud and Never Trumpism. Most likely Trump can survive one of those issues and win but not both of them.