Spent considerable time on the phone with Richard Baris who has been up all night watching these votes.
(I signed off last night thinking both WI and MI were secure!)
1) Baris thinks WI is legit, that the blue areas overperformed the way Cankles should have in 2016.
2) He thinks MI is suspect. Overcoming a 600,000 lead with utter top-end performance out of absentees? Baris recommends WH demand a re-canvass. Passed this rec along to WH.
3) PA: Baris thinks the Trump lead, especially in areas left to count, is insurmountable even for Philly Phraud. WH needs to be on top, but should hold PA.
4) He’s concerned about Cobb and Fulton. But our own Lazamataz has run the numbers and Baris agrees Trump holds GA by 40,000.
5) AZ: both Gov. Douchey and Kelli Ward think we have the votes. Douchey has so informed the WH. WH thinks we hold AZ by 30,000.
GA, AZ, PA=win.
6) NV: although only 7,000 lead for Bitme right now with almost 1/3 outstanding, Baris is concerned that most of these are Clark absentees. It would be poetic justice to lose AZ, but win with NV.
Way too early for postmortems but Trump came in exactly where I said he would with blacks (12%, plus -4% off turnout). Baris called FL perfectly, saying Trump could win Hispanics outfight (48%, so pretty darn close).
After seeing the WI and MI leads, I thought we were safe in both. This is going to the courts if Trump holds AZ and GA. The good news in both states you have an R gov and legislature.
Haven’t gotten around to senate. Last I heard it was 52-48, but that could change too.
ABOVE POST IS FROM LS!
So, this puts him over 270?
Thank you!!!
TigerClaws wrote:
“Spent considerable time on the phone with Richard Baris who has been up all night watching these votes.
(I signed off last night thinking both WI and MI were secure!)
1) Baris thinks WI is legit, that the blue areas overperformed the way Cankles should have in 2016.
2) He thinks MI is suspect. Overcoming a 600,000 lead with utter top-end performance out of absentees? Baris recommends WH demand a re-canvass. Passed this rec along to WH.
3) PA: Baris thinks the Trump lead, especially in areas left to count, is insurmountable even for Philly Phraud. WH needs to be on top, but should hold PA.
4) He’s concerned about Cobb and Fulton. But our own Lazamataz has run the numbers and Baris agrees Trump holds GA by 40,000.
5) AZ: both Gov. Douchey and Kelli Ward think we have the votes. Douchey has so informed the WH. WH thinks we hold AZ by 30,000.
GA, AZ, PA=win.
6) NV: although only 7,000 lead for Bitme right now with almost 1/3 outstanding, Baris is concerned that most of these are Clark absentees. It would be poetic justice to lose AZ, but win with NV.
Way too early for postmortems but Trump came in exactly where I said he would with blacks (12%, plus -4% off turnout). Baris called FL perfectly, saying Trump could win Hispanics outfight (48%, so pretty darn close).
After seeing the WI and MI leads, I thought we were safe in both. This is going to the courts if Trump holds AZ and GA. The good news in both states you have an R gov and legislature.
Haven’t gotten around to senate. Last I heard it was 52-48, but that could change too.”
What about NC?