Here’s what I figure. Without PA, WI and MI, AND losing AZ, Trump stands at 250. (I think). PA alone gets him to 270. Any two get him OVER 270. Not sure about those weird states that split their votes.
CNN just called 1 Nebraska EV for Biden. Only other time a Democrat won any from Nebraska was Obama in 2008. That’s a big problem for Trump. The “tie” scenario is gone now. Trump could lose the election by 1 EV. He may need an entire state to make up for that lost EV.
If Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan flip to Biden, Trump loses by 1 EV.