Posted on 11/02/2020 5:50:51 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 663,685
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 555,562
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 108,123
Do you know if Byecomeys page will be updated as the votes come in tomorrow?
If so do you happen to know the final registered +REP net vote was for the 2016 election after all the votes were counted?
so we can compare that number with the rising Rep totals tomorrow and see if we can pass it by days end
Correct imo. DEMs needed a much bigger firewall than 108k because all the data says only 8 to 10% plan to vote election day.
my Florida prediction
is Trump wins by 184,512
I for one have no idea. There are a lot of NA voters. No idea what they do.
Trump 49.2%
Biden 48.0%
Trump wins by 129,911, about 1.2%
120-125K by days in most likely , still not enough
last 20 min update was D +613 mails in
Bay/Gulf county trimmed 34 off that with IPEV
Good details on super/low voters.
Trump by 200,000
Trump got 95% of the Republican primary vote, better then 2016
Biden much loser percent of Democrat primary vote.
There will definitely be more crossover Dems voting for Trump than Reps voting for Biden.
I am guessing 2% more Dems vote for Trump. (may be a LOT more)
I am guessing Trump wins independents by 3% (same as 2016 Florida - 53-47 Ind for Trump)
Will call D-R even split on total votes.
10,000,000 votes total, probably more.
* Trump gains equal number of R votes as Biden gets D votes
* Trump gains roughly 80K Democrat votes ***may be much more*** 2% of Dems
* Trump gains roughly 75k Independent votes 3% I’s
Trump for the win at 155K votes approximately 1.5%
Trump MUST win the Independents and small Dem crossover to have a solid victory.
Final Guess:
Trump: 49.5 %
Biden: 48.0 %
I really feel this is worst case as I expect a LOT of crossover Democrats especially in south Florida Cubans/PR/Hispanics , I think we are already seeing this in Dade County. I will be very happy to be off by a couple percent and see Trump win bigger margin :)
50-47 DJT
byecomey said his website should work tomorrow and have a “new look”.
I think he is trying account for Miami/Sarasota with some statistical take.
What do you mean by “final registered +REP net vote”?
My predictions:
Trump: 50.2
Biden: 47.7
Trump wins by 265,000 votes.
Bonus prediction:
Charlie Crist loses in FL-13, the Florida upset contribution towards re-taking the house.
so we can compare that number with the rising Rep totals tomorrow and see if we can pass it by days end
—
I meant the overall registered REP Net + in 2016
trump won by 115K votes in 2016 election of all votes from REPs, DEMs and NPAs
but what was the + net registered Rep vote in 2016?
+115?
+130?
+100?
we can compare that number to Byecomeys website if it is indeed updated tomorrow
“Charlie Crist loses in FL-13, the Florida upset contribution towards re-taking the house.”
Giving me goosebumps.
I think I understand what you are saying.
Let me go compute.
The Dem guy posted the FL numbers so it’s not coming out of optimism on our side. Looking at his numbers, it is unlikely and rather bleak for them, if he’s correct. Our supervoters + less regular ones + Dems attending Trump rallies + new voters picked up at rallies vs only their low propensity ones?
What do you mean by “final registered +REP net vote”?
How many more registered Republicans than Dems voted in the 2016 election after all the votes were counted? ( I assume more reps than dems voted)
That is the number we need to compare to Byecomeys website data as it updates tomorrow
POTUS by 450,000 votes. We also take the House, and gain one Senate seat to reach 54-46.
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