Posted on 11/02/2020 5:50:51 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 663,685
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 555,562
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 108,123
AZ D lead down to 6k
https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns
Maricopa R lead up to 23k.
Maricopa drives the state. Need to minimize R crossovers there.
Considering 218k ballots were cast in M-D on election day 2016, I would expect at least 375k R turnout at worst.
From Bill Stepien - Trump campaign manager:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1323329137734397954.html
So there has been a lot of bluster, from pollsters and pundits, about what we should expect tomorrow.
President Trump has the momentum in this race and the math available to him to win on Election Day.
President Trump is ahead of where he was in 2016, by a very key measure.
It’s the measure that actually matters. Votes cast, and votes left to be cast.
You’ve been seeing reports of Democrats being nervous, and well, they should be.
Let’s start in Ohio, where Joe Biden is wasting a few hours today.
Weeks ago the partisan makeup of the electorate was D +10, today it’s D +0.6.
Going into E Day in 2016, the gap was D +2.5.
Pres. Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 400k net votes.
Pres. Trump rallied in North Carolina this morning.
Democrats jumped out to a D +32 advantage during AB only voting. Today it’s D +5.8.
Going into Election Day in 2016, the gap was D +9.7.
Pres. Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 400k net votes.
Pres. Trump and Biden are then heading to Pennsylvania.
Dems have banked A TON of high propensity voters. We have millions of voters left.
Pres. Trump’s E Day margin needs to be significant and we project an Election Day votes cast margin of over a million for Pres. Trump.
Don Jr. is in AZ today to etch the state into our win column.
Weeks ago the makeup of the electorate was D +11.9, today it’s D +1.2. Reminder: going into E Day in 2016, the gap was D +2.5.
Pres. Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 150k net votes.
What about Florida?
Democrats jumped out to a D +18.8 advantage during AB-only voting. Today it’s D +1.
Going into Election Day in 2016, the gap was D +1.4.
President Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 500k net votes.
Good stuff. We seem to be closing strong...everywhere. I’ve looked at McDonald’s map and pretty much every state is the same scenario.
I don’t like his gf either.
I’d like to see 2024 ticket:
Don Jr. for POTUS
Don Sr. for VPOTUS
But Don Jr. will need to dump gf before then. She’s a liability.
“President Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 500k net votes.” - Bill Stepien
RNS
@RNS_USA
“Did you see Stepien’s thread? He just said Republicans in Florida will have a +500,000 margin in Election Day voting”
Rick.bland.357
@357Bland
“Sounds about right as I’ve had Trump winning Florida by 3-400k. Being down 100k right now with 500k advantage tomorrow sounds about right based on how EV has gone with registration shifts and comparing to 2016 and 2018 results.”
This I can live with. After that, barring significant defections, Trump will do significantly better in Dade this time compared to 2016.
Florida Prediction: Trump 51.2%, Biden 47.2, 3rd parties 1.6%
Do you need an address to send the box of Cigars to?
DonSr, if he wins now, would be ineligible. I guess we could spend two years working for an amendment.
No Dynasties!
DeSantis 2024!
DeSantos/ Noame
Scott Rasmussen is predicting a landslide victory for Biden. What is your reaction to that?
Please get OFF the dynasty shtick. We broke away from England over this issue. Dynasties nowadays are only for either powerless royal families and Commie countries such as North Korea or Cuba.
Don’t know who that is and don’t care. Numbers speak for themselves.
He said the polls are indicating a landslide for Biden.
Do you believe the polls ?
350K people were polled as to who they think their neighbors will vote for, say Trump - except for those in Colorado.
Subway Belichick
@guru_scout
“As @RobertCahaly [Trafalgar polling boss] has said, the neighbor vote is one of the best predictors of who’s going to win. Seems like everyone’s neighbor is in agreement minus Colorado”
https://twitter.com/guru_scout/status/1323334233411244032
Anyone worried about Georgia?
Red Eagle Politics
@RedEaglePatriot
“Georgia’s gold standard poll, the Landmark poll (nailed 2016/2018) has Trump up by 4.”
“Do you need an address to send the box of Cigars to?”
If we don’t have an address on file, we will contact you.
We know you are in Colorado!
Anyone who is still nervous can watch the just completed “What are the Odds” with Robert Barnes and Rich Baris. It will eliminate any concerns about Trump’s victory.
So much detailed info it is almost hard to take it all in.
Personally I am expecting tomorrow to be a “mini” red wave.
https://twitter.com/Barnes_Law
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