Even Trafalgar doesn’t see it.
What pollsters cannot capture—at the end of the day—is turnout.
There is no way to tell who will actually show up and vote.
I think what they will miss in this particular election is the coronavirus effect.
There are a lot of Democrats in my area, and many of them have already voted by mail.
But, those who have not yet voted are terrified of the coronavirus.
Terrified.
My hard-core Democratic Party family’s Thanksgiving has been canceled.
I am telling you that the Coronavirus will lead to a significant reduction of Democratic turnout on election day, and there is no way to capture that with a poll.
“Oh yeah, Ms. Pollster, I am afraid to go out and vote.”
_Nobody_ will admit that publicly.
That is your “shy” no-show Democratic voter.
We will know soon enough, but this is my read.