AZ-2 (former McSally district) was always moderately Republican. Even Az-9 could be in contention, especially if AZ State students skip the vote.
Jeep, I don’t think so. This is because we DON’T HAVE A CANDIDATE there who can flip these.
At the House level it’s of course about district partisan makeup, but a good candidate can overcome. This has been my whole issue with “retaking the House” this cycle. We don’t have the JC Watses, Steve Largents, JD Hayworths, or later, the Dan Crenshaws who are more than just a politician.
Plus we in AZ don’t have the gas/oil/energy issues to help our non-descript candidates. Even though he would have been a kook and easy to attack, I thought if we could have gotten Steven Seagall to run for AZ 9 he could have won it.
I’m in AZ-3. Have entrenched swamp rat Raúl Grijalva running against Daniel Wood. We don’t watch local channels so haven’t seen any ads for Daniel. I’ve heard nothing about the state of the race which probably means another term for Raúl.