[SmokingJoe]

Joe Scarborough
@JoeNBC
Republicans gained another 50,000 today in Florida. Democrats’ lead has been cut from 430,000 to about 110,000. Republicans have 2 days to pick up 25,000 more to outperform their 2016 numbers. Unless Ds stop the slide this weekend, Biden is in a bind in Florida.

[plushaye]

Morning Joe is understating the Dems problem in FL. Last time he posted a warning I think he got a lot of blowback about “buzzkill”.

I keep thinking about this clip from CNN yesterday. Look at the analyst’s and David Axelrod’s faces. They are funereal. I think this is more than Miami-Dade’s Dem EV falling short.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WibM5490ivU

[Reagan80]

Joe is not considering two things there:

A) Turnout is clearly higher this time around; so a lead of 110K in 2020 is a smaller lead than 110K in 2016; percentage-wise, and therefore in the ability of the leader to hold the lead, and

B) Net voter registration of R’s closed the gap on D registration in FL by 200,000 since 2016. It’s like having an extra 200K in the bank to draw from before the voting even starts.