D VBM return rate is 76.0%. Yesterday was 74.4%
R VBM return rate is 74.6%. Yesterday was 72.6%.
1.4 point gap. Smallest gap so far.
We are going to estimate D overall turnout at their VBM return rate on Election Eve morning.
Then assume they add 5 points to that number over last 2 days. Then assume they underperform that number by 5 points with all in person voting (IPEV+ED). [net we estimate all in person voting is 10 points under final VBM percent]
With those calculations we can estimate the size of Trump’s victory in Florida.
Go Trump
D VBM return rate is 77.5%. This morning was 76.0%
R VBM return rate is 76.3%. This morning was 74.6%.
1.2 point gap.
Last Sunday was pretty busy. Ds may add another 1-1.5 to their rate tomorrow.