Posted on 10/29/2020 10:53:14 AM PDT by Hojczyk
I feel about this the way I felt about those Minnesota polls that Ed posted this morning: They can’t be reconciled with other data, so someone somewhere is wrong. It could be that the Minnesota polls are right — but if they are, then the national polling is wildly, wildly off. There’s no plane of reality where Joe Biden wins the national popular vote by seven points but loses a heartbreaker in Minnesota.
Likewise, it’s all but impossible to believe that Biden is leading in Florida right now — slightly, according to the RCP average — if he’s turned a 27-point Clinton lead among Hispanics in 2016 into a five-point lead. The pollster who conducted the poll for Telemundo said as much to Politico: “If Biden is going to flip Florida, he has to at least match Clinton’s numbers among Hispanics and that looks like it’s not going to happen.” I’m not sure that that’s strictly true, as the story of the campaign to date has been Trump overperforming with Latinos and Biden overperforming with whites, a much larger group. In theory, Trump could win Hispanics in Florida outright and Biden could still take the state by cutting deeply enough into the president’s advantage with white voters.
Update: Twenty minutes after I finished this post, Monmouth dropped its final Florida poll of the campaign. They have it Biden 50, Trump 45 among registered voters, with Biden gaining a point in a high-turnout scenario and losing a point in a low-turnout scenario. As for Latinos:
A 26-point Democratic advantage, basically identical to Clinton’s margin within that group four years ago. Five days until we know whether Monmouth or Telemundo was right.
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
A 30,000 Trump caravan in Miami
Toast
There is actually a term for this situation.
I believe its “Ruh Ro Raggy”
Didn’t Telemundo have a poll right after the first debate that showed Trump won convincingly?
Trump already won Florida
Florida will probably declare kinda early on election night, and the idea of challenging things....won’t go anywhere.
I think the Latino thing for Trump will occur in NM and NV as well.
Please, do not ever link to that asshole Allahpundit. He is one of the worst Nevertrumper out there, and he literally admits and is proud of it
I’m getting pissed at the MSM. Every single report they have is “Biden leads by...” this or that.
I’ve never seen any report from the MSM that says: “Trump’s lead is....”.
Monmouth is polling “registered voters” instead of “likely voters” now. Says a lot to me.
The MSM is enemy propaganda.
You are better off listening to North Korean or Chinese broadcasts.
Really.
Most folks I know in my decidedly liberal area wouldn’t tell you they were voting for Trump if their life depended on it (which it could) - but they are.
Republicans votes are leading in early in person voting in Miami Dade & Palm Beach counties, historically Dem strongholds.
More cracks in the fraud MSM narrative.
They’re saving those reports for election night.
30,000 drivers and 3 or 4 passengers per car gives north of 100,000 voters.
So 5 Hispanics total?
If we talk to 10 of them we can break this lead? Hold a Biden size rally?
You don't even need any of that. All you gotta do is look at the VBM+IPEV right now. Those are real votes, not some cockamamie polls from Monmouth.
Trump is killing it.
Plus Republicans registered nearly 200,000 more new voters than the Democrats between 2016 and 2020 in Florida.
Florida is essentially over.
Buh bye Bye-done
Monmouth is smoking crack.
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