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California projected an October surge in COVID-19 hospitalizations. It didn't happen.
SF Gate ^ | October 29, 2020 | by Eric Ting

Posted on 10/29/2020 7:49:27 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer

Near the end of September, California's CalCAT modeling system projected a near-doubling in COVID-19 hospitalizations by the end of October, with public health officials warning of a potential surge.

"Our short-term forecast for today's conditions predicts an increase in hospitalizations a month from now," California Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly said at the time. "Currently, we're at 2,578 confirmed COVID-positive individuals in the hospitals, but a month from now ... our projections show that we'll be just shy of 5,000 hospitalizations."

It is now the end of October, and hospitalizations have not doubled to 5,000. On Wednesday, the state's official dashboard reported that 2,342 COVID-19-positive patients are currently hospitalized, which is actually a decrease from the confirmed positive patient figure Ghaly reported at the end of September.

At the time of the prediction, there were clues that fears of a hospitalization surge were overblown.

Moral of the story: The state's CalCAT system is imperfect, and it is actually quite easy to look under the hood to see how likely a certain projection is.

(Excerpt) Read more at ...

TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: china; hospitalization; pandemic; virus

1 posted on 10/29/2020 7:49:27 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

Website for
The ChiCom cooties.

2 posted on 10/29/2020 7:51:31 AM PDT by Big Red Badger (TRUMP, the Other guy lives in a Basement!)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

Fake modeling started this whole fiasco and is now forced to continue the charade.

3 posted on 10/29/2020 7:51:57 AM PDT by immadashell (Save Innocent Lives - ban Gun Free Zones)
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To: Big Red Badger

The numbers are getting kinda obvious—the Democratic politicians are playing politics, and using bad “science” to f*&^ over their citizens.

I know it is very frustrating for many folks right now, but the Democrats are about to find out—revenge is a dish best served cold (on election day).

4 posted on 10/29/2020 7:53:53 AM PDT by cgbg (Biden n-2020: Criminal enterprise using cokehead as bagman.)
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To: Big Red Badger

Liberals have made ‘covid’ into the skeleton key they will wield in accessing ALL power and authority in the United States.

Wherever they cannot legitimately get access, they will use COVID to threaten, coerce and bully everyone into allowing them to do

5 posted on 10/29/2020 7:55:47 AM PDT by SMARTY ("Barbarism is the absence of standards to which an appeal can be made" Y Gasset)
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To: immadashell

All modeling is fake.

6 posted on 10/29/2020 7:55:48 AM PDT by SanchoP
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

Yes, but they will pat themselves on the back & say it is because they mandated strict lockdowns & draconian face mask mandates.

It is a lose/lose situation for freedom loving Californians.

If there was a spike they would say we need to mandate strict lockdowns & draconian face mask mandates.

7 posted on 10/29/2020 7:56:53 AM PDT by gubamyster
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To: immadashell

“Fake modeling started this whole fiasco and is now forced to continue the charade.”

Just like the global warming hoax.

8 posted on 10/29/2020 7:57:53 AM PDT by READINABLUESTATE ( Deplorable, and proud of it.)
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To: cgbg

The Dems are running out of bullets. There has not been a surge in Covid deaths in spite of more positive tests, and the job numbers and GDP growth have both been very positive for President Trump. The President has had a series of huge, enthusiastic rallies since his recovery from Covid, slammed Biden in the final debate, and the Hunter fiasco has forced Biden to limit himself to the basement and to pathetically small gatherings. Compared to 2016, everything seems to be falling in place for the President.

9 posted on 10/29/2020 7:59:59 AM PDT by littleharbour ("You take on the intel community they have six ways from Sunday at getting back at you" C. Schumer)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

California is currently ranked the 33rd state in COVID-19 cases per capita. Should be a success story. But at what cost? The shutdown is causing irreparable damage as businesses shutter and continue to flee the state along with taxpayers. It’s an economic Holomodor.

10 posted on 10/29/2020 8:06:04 AM PDT by socal_parrot (Squirrel!)
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To: SanchoP

or open source.

11 posted on 10/29/2020 8:07:54 AM PDT by kvanbrunt2 (spooks won on day 76)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

How is the biggest HMO on the West Coast/California currently handling CV 19 in its clinics and hospitals?

In late March of this year, it would have been easier to get into the NSA or CIA than into any of this HMO’s hospitals or clinics, if you were a family member of a patient in a Hospital of this HMO>

If your loved one had a severe health problem or needed emergency surgery, you could not even go into the hospital with your loved one. You had to park in the parking lot and could not come into the hospital to be with your loved one. This was SOP for most hospitals in America and still is.

We had friends, who had dropped off relatives at the ER doors of this HMO and couldn’t see them again, until they were discharged. Even then the patients were brought out to the curb to be loaded into their family’s vehicle. The relatives could not go inside the hospital.

Again, this was apparently SOP at hospitals across America.

All of these precautions were apparently based on the current data at that time on CV19 re transmission and so called lethality of CV19.

Even in mid August, rules re going into this HMO’s hospitals/clinics were very stringent. I was re scheduled for September for foot surgery.

The foot doctor wanted me to have some heavy duty pain pills so he ordered a small amount at their pharmacy in my home town. Again this was Mid August, 2 months ago.

We had to park at special signs in their parking lot and phone the pharmacy. They sent a pharmacy tech out to check my ids and HMO card. Then, he escorted me to the parking lot entrance. 2 RN’s did separate electronic temp checks, and I signed a note that I felt okay. Again my member card and California ID was checked.

My wife had to stay in our car and was told she could not get out.

Then, I was escorted to what had become a huge waiting room. After about 10 minutes, I was escorted to the pharmacy by the tech to get my rx.

Next, the pharmacy tech escorted me to my car and my wife was still inside the car. Then, a uniformed security guard told me to follow him to exit the parking lot.

Flash forward to the 3rd week of September for my foot operation, and their CV 19 world had changed.

We went into the hospital via the parking lot, and we had 2 temp scams from big machines attached to the ceilings.

Real RNs in that area told us that we could go to where my operation would be done. That was it. The temp checks at the door to the hospital and checking in at the foot clinic for my operation.

Post op, my wife brought me down in a wheel chair. I was loaded into the car, and my wife drove me home.

A couple of weeks later, we went back to the hospital to have my stitches removed. There were no RN’s manning the entrance. A security guard was there and told us to go on to where we were going. He said that the temp checks had been done. We did not hear the process that we heard before.

We walked unescorted to the foot clinic. After my stitches were removed we left. Again no escorts.

On, 27 October, I went to our local HMO clinic for some lab tests. I had zero temp checks. I was just asked if I had a fever or didn’t feel good. I told them that I was fine. They gave me a disposable mask and that was it. No escorts to the lab. I went there and got into line like other patients. After about 10 minutes, five of us were called to go into the drawing station. I had to show my picture ID again.

After my blood was drawn, I left the lab unescorted and went to our vehicle. I asked the parking lot guard if I could leave our vehicle there for a few minutes, while we walked to a grocery store across the street. He said no problem and walked away.

We brought our groceries, walked back to our car and said Hi to the security guard and left.

Unknown to us a friend had just dropped off another friend at the local hospital (non HMO) at their ER doors. This hospital is about 6 blocks away as a sober crow can fly.

Our friend, the driver could not go into the other hospital and drove home. She came back in a couple of hours to pick up the dropped off friend, post procedure. Again no entrance to the hospital, the patient was wheeled out and loaded in our friend’s vehicle.

So what has changed at this major HMO re their Covid 19 precautions in less than 3 months?

Obviously, their real data/reality is totally different than the daily Covid B$ we are fed here on Free Republic, via the mediots and our Karens/trolls!

So, why aren’t the patients at this huge HMO dropping and dying like flies after be exposed to the dreaded CV19?

12 posted on 10/29/2020 8:08:39 AM PDT by Grampa Dave (I would rather be killed by Covid than by Loneliness, at the end of my life! I'll be 82 in November!)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

My opinion...

The surges seem to me to occur when our seasonal behavior takes us indoors for social activity.

Sunbelt states surged in Summer when it is too hot to be outdoors. Social interaction and gatherings move indoors.

In the midwest, cases began to surge almost the moment we had our first frost. Planned social activities are almost all planned for indoors beginning in October. Sure there are nice days in October, but you don’t plan for it to be nice.

My advice if you are at risk - stay out of crowded indoor spaces that are poorly ventilated.

13 posted on 10/29/2020 8:14:30 AM PDT by IamConservative (I was nervous like the third chimp in line for the Ark after the rain started.)
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To: IamConservative

They are exaggerating and ramping up hysteria in hopes that elderly Trump supporters will be too frightened to vote in person.

14 posted on 10/29/2020 8:30:51 AM PDT by ozarker
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To: immadashell; cgbg; SMARTY

That We could drive
Newsome Out into the Wild,
Tarred and Feathered.
The Great Republic of
California has been Destroyed by Him and his

15 posted on 10/29/2020 8:35:49 AM PDT by Big Red Badger (TRUMP, the Other guy lives in a Basement!)
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