Currently the giant swath of red counties in N. FL are almost already at 2016 rates. INDIES in those counties have already exceeded their 2016 levels.
Is it more likely that indies in deeply red counties would be conservative? Gee, I think so.
Indies should break for Trump in rural “red” areas, and Democrats in those counties (many of them DINOs) are far more likely to vote for Trump than RINOs are to vote for Biden.
But as far as the “blue” counties.... the assumptions above are hardly one-size-fits-all.