He was behind 12 point last week, according to the drivebys.
Hell, who am I kidding? They're probably still saying that this week.
A good bit the shift can be attributed to switching polling methodology. The usually shift from polling “Registered Voters” to “Likely Voters” in the closing 2 weeks of the campaign. Then you have to factor the “Shy Trump Voter” factor which is really anybody’s guess. I have yet to see anybody explain how to ‘get at’ that number from 2016 much less predict it for 2020.
My sense is that Pennsylvania will go for Trump but, if it’s still close (<3%) the election fraud machinery kicks in and it will be up to the USSC to stop the unlawful vote counting.
I think the 12 point was an outlier.