Posted on 10/27/2020 6:39:14 AM PDT by Reagan80
In a typical election, the early vote – by mail or in-person at a polling location – provides clues as to the state of the election. In 2016, from the early vote alone, I correctly predicted that Donald Trump would need to win Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to win the Electoral College.
I made my 2016 prediction using a technique known as difference-in-difference analysis. It is important to understand how this approach works to know what the 2020 early vote can and cannot tells us.
The difference-in-difference approach starts with the early vote statistics for the current election. In a state with party registration, we can see the relative turnout among registrants of the political parties by looking at this first difference in the number of registered Democrats and Republicans who have voted so far.
A problem with analyzing this first difference by itself is it lacks context. Just because registered Democrats are leading Republicans in early voting, that does not mean the Republicans will not make up ground on Election Day. Indeed, registered Democrats typically lead Republicans during early voting, and Republicans vote on Election Day, a pattern that persists across many states and elections.
A solution to provide more context is to examine a second difference which is the relative turnout of the political parties in a past comparable election. If Democrats’ turnout is more or less than their turnout in a comparable election, this provides clues as to the relative enthusiasm that Democrats have and the outcome that might be expected when the votes are tallied. The difference-in-difference method works well when there is a baseline comparable election.... With an unprecedented number of voters casting mail ballots, particularly Democrats, there is no comparable election to draw solid conclusions from in most states.
(Excerpt) Read more at electproject.github.io ...
For example; 88 million ballots requested; 44 million returned, plus 22 million in person early votes, for a total of 66 million people who have already voted; or 48.1% of the total 2016 turnout who have already voted.
I correctly predicted that Donald Trump would need to win Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to win the Electoral College.”
That’s wrong
He only needed one of those
Did he bother to predict this one?
While true, I think we can allow the author some poetic license here. All three would have been needed if say, Florida had gone Hillary.
That is why the Javits Center crowd went into a sudden panic when it was clear Trump had won Florida - they knew he needed only one rust belt flip to win. That is when the mood changed in the building.
Anyway, the important part of this post is the current data for the election at hand. And for that purpose, this site is *amazing* for all you numbers geeks out there.
Right. These states are where fraud will be concentrated.
The question will be does Trump lose any other states that he captured and/or gain those he didn't.
He writes a narrative on the current state of early voting every Sunday. He is planning to discuss the movement in the final week towards one candidate or the other in this coming Sunday’s final pre-election commentary.
Whether he posts a final prediction on election day, I do not know; having just found the site this cycle.
His best shots are New Hampshire (4 EV’s), Minnesota (10); and New Mexico (5), probably in that order of ‘flip’.
Those could either be a crucial potential 20 EV’s if Biden flips some of main three, PA, WI and MI (also probably in order of ‘flip’ the other way; or padding on top of a landslide (at least as landslide as it gets these days), of a 326 EV Trump win.
If Trump is presumed, now recently, to be about to win AZ, NC, and FL, then Biden must win all the Rust Belt states, MN, WI, MI, PA, to win. Not gonna happen....
PA is going, going, gone.
The good thing is that much of the Democrat votes are in California so they are wasted vis-a-vis the electoral college. Might mean a Democrat popular vote win but that is a bit of a pyrrhic victory when Trump wins the electoral count.
PA will be the epicenter for fraud but the margin for Trump may be tool large to make up and Trump has said law enforcement is watching.
Funny. I also stopped reading
That seems an extremely low percentage (50%) of mail in ballot return, with only a week and six postal days to go. It would certainly be ironic after the democrats pushed so hard for mail in voting it actually ends up hurting them because millions of their voters put the ballot someplace and forgot about it or threw it away thinking it was junk mail, or just took one look at it and said "screw it" too much work and set it aside (and the mail in ballots do tend to be very cumbersome, I had to help my 84 year old mother with hers and I even thought the directions were tedious and convoluted).
PA will be the epicenter for fraud but the margin for Trump may be tool large to make up and Trump has said law enforcement is watching.
I read yesterday that the Republican party in PA is resubmitting their case for review by the Supreme Court to throw out the order by the Pennsylvania court to allow extra days for mail in ballots to arrive and ruling signatures don't have to be verified. It went to the Supreme Court once already and tied 4-4 (Roberts sided with the liberals) resulting in the lower court order remaining in place. But now with Coney-Barrett on the court Republicans should be able to shoot down the state orders in a 5-4 ruling.
ok, thank you for that clarification....I will try to dig in.....please forgive my sledge hammer approach lol
I’m not sure I see Trump as vulnerable in any states he won?
NC always freaks me out a bit, but I think he’s doing well there?
I think he’s got FL and Ohio.
If it’s true that he has FL, TX and OH....that’s a very strong start to get to 270....
Exactly....
biden’s path to victory is....exactly what?
He’s going to have to really thread the needle....and I just don’t see it.
I’d hate to be part of the biden campaign atm.
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