D VBM return rate is 68.1%. Yesterday was 66.8% (only increased 1.3 points!)
R VBM return rate is 64.8%
3.3 point gap. Gap is closing.
We are going to estimate D overall turnout at their VBM return rate on Election Eve morning.
Then assume they add 5 points to that number over last 2 days. Then assume they underperform that number by 5 points with all in person voting (IPEV+ED). [net we estimate all in person voting is 10 points under final VBM percent]
With those calculations we can estimate the size of Trump’s victory in Florida.
Go Team Go
“D VBM return rate is 68.1%. Yesterday was 66.8% (only increased 1.3 points!)”
1.3 increase yesterday was the lowest for a weekday I can remember this election.
If that continued: 1.3*6 = 7.8 + 68.1 = 75.9%
Ds would be doomed at 75.9% turnout. That number would be a kick in the teeth to Ds who were off to such a fast pace in returns.
What’s your final D turnout estimate?