“One question, how do you account for “independents” or is that even an issue in Florida?”
According to exit polls, Trump won Indies by 53k.
If Indies break hard for Biden in huge numbers, of course that could flip the state. If R turnout decreases, that could flip the state.
We have to estimate based on some assumptions. I assume R turnout stays the same and Trump wins Indies.
I am con corned about hurricane Zeta. If it knocks down the vote in the panhandle for a couple days then the Dims in s FL may flip the state. Those folks in the panhandle MUST vote even in the face of a possible hurricane .