Posted on 10/27/2020 5:55:37 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Strangely, since 1968, when FL goes right, the rust belt states go right as well. Same with swinging left/blue.
https://twitter.com/realikamusume/status/1319842199719317504
I’ve heard some possible reasons for this, but nothing stands out as a good explanation for me.
(overall state average is 45.8%
UMichVoter
@umichvoter99
Okay so black in Miami dade was 2016 was 69.9%. It’s currently about 39%
Dems need to get out a good chunk that remains 30% more in the last 5 days of early voting
Thanks, I was just reading the replies on that thread. More nervousness from the lefties. AA’s just not turning out in Dade so far as expected (and Hispanics for Trump seem to be).
https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1321251414056849408
some drivers behind the Rep EV push:
Sumter County up to 66.6% total turnout (where Trump was the other day )
Collier 61.9%
I hope total turnout is at least 85% here otherwise these places will have fewer bullets for the typical ED Rep surge
post 285
some background info
Collier ha highest turnout in the state in 2016 86.8%
Sumter 84.4%
I saw that, and thought, that’s a Trump supporter messing with them.
Yes, I thought that as well. But there’s still definitely nervousness about FL in lefty-world tonight.
Somewhere numbers aren’t aligning with reality (and i’m mainly referring to Umich and other democrats analyzing polling data). On one hand they say Black support for Biden is through the roof in some places (where it is not as easily measured as Florida), but then in Florida and North Carolina (where it seems to be more easily calculated) it is lower. I think they are overestimating the black turnout and the black support.
Steve Schale posted numbers this morning.
Black turnout in Florida so far is 12.4%. Basically “in-line” with 2016 final turnout.
Well hello from another Day at the Largest Red Poll Station in Miami!! I see once again people are trying to figure out Miami Dade..LOL!!
It is very easy but all the Air Campaign Masters of Data think they can DATA this and that!
Rush spoke about this today anyone that is using a 2016 TURNOUT MODEL is wrong!! The 2020 ELECTORATE does not look like 2016 and hence why the Polls are wrong again and why the AIR CAMPAIGN Masters never saw Miami Dade coming!!
We did on the Ground!! We are spot on and have been while others do cartwheels and punch numbers 1000s of miles away!!
Rush is correct 2016 MODELS are useless period!!
I see people say the LEFTIES are nervous in Miami!!
Yeah and they should be!! I told people here last week THEE STORY in 2020 FL will be the Massive Hispanic Shift to Trump in Miami Dade!! And that is what everyone including the Dems are seeing!!
Not VBMs or 2016 Turnout Models!!
Look at 2018 Desantis and Scott did this to much lesser extent then Trump is doing now but they pushed hard into Miami Dade hence costing Gillum and Nelson the win!! Yes Miami Dade
Now move to 2020!! I will say this again: Any GOP Candidate that garners over 40 percent of the Hispanic Vote will win!! PERIOD!!
Trump is now in the realm of garnering up to 50% of the Hispanic Vote and in Miami he is!! That is why the Dems are panicking!! They know!!
We started early in the year Registering New Hispanic Voters in MIAMI. You are all surprised and say what is happening in Miami...LOL!! It is very simple...you know when Trump talks of all that money that went into the GROUND GAME? Well Miami Dade is exactly what he is talking about!!
There is no surprise except to those that use previous Models that do not catch the SHIFT and hence the errors and recalculating!
The Dems surrendered the field to the GOP because of COVID! This allowed us the ability to work nonstop to contact, register and inform New Voters!
Desantis never closed FL despite what some people thought back in April/May.
Look at the NEW FL POLLS! RCP has shifted FL to TRUMP! The polls show Trump now with 3, 4 and 5 point leads! Why?
Simply the REALITY of Miami Dade is becoming the Dems Nightmare! It is the LARGEST COUNTY in the State with the fastest growing Demographically!! The New Hispanics!!
The GOP has made massive inroads and it is showing! This will enable the GOP to maintain FL as a RED STATE on the National and State Level!! GOP controls every State Office!
The Dems notice are focusing on BLACK TURNOUT!! Why? Because there is no one on the Biden Team that can help with the New Hispanics that see Harris as an AVID SOCIALIST and the REAL CANDIDATE!!
Obama was here and Orlando for Black Turnout!! The problem for Dems is Obama has lost his mystique. I went to his appearance here in Miami and it was not impressive nor motivating! The other issue is Trump is getting more BLACK MALE votes in FL.
The issue for Dems is also Crossover from Traditional Dem Hispanics like the Colombians and Dominicans to Trump!
This is the story and Miami will lead the way in the Massive Hispanic Shift to Trump and the Dems are seeing it!
Souls for Polls and lower Black Enthusiasm and more Black Support for Trump is a new concern as well!! Hence the shift in Polls in FL to Trump including RCP!
ED will show this as well!! One other problem the YUTS VOTE (18-29) is not helping Biden either as it has traditionally for Dems...especially College kids.
Thanks for keeping us posted...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.