Yes IBD/TIPP was very close in 2016. Unfortunately, like the USC poll, they changed their methodology....
Take away the polls.... are there any other signs Trump is winning or losing? Early voting? Rallies.. voter registrations?
Take PA for example.. Trump won by about 100k votes.... Republicans have netted 215,000 more republican voters since 2016.. I find it hard to believe Trump will lose PA.
Same with Florida.