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I’ve been assuming he holds NC and FL. If he holds MI and AZ then we’re golden.”

Agree, he wins.

“That being said I’ve typically been looking at the map without AZ”

Interesting. He’s been doing better there in the “polls” than NC. But what do polls know.

My gut tells me he’s going to win AZ, and squeak by in NC.

There is a certain part of me that believes that in two weeks we are going to look back and say "what in the hell were we so worried about?"

Both sides are analyzing the VBM and Early voting, but it seems like there isn't a real consensus. Both sides can seem to twist it to make it like their side is ahead. But if you come down to it. Trump has his solid base.....end of story. For all the talk of losing suburban women, just look at his rallies. It is not a bunch of men sitting around. I think the story of the election will be lack of black support for Biden (regardless of whether that means a greater percent of black vote for Trump).