I’m showing that Ds lead Rs in IPEV in just 9 counties:
Duval
Broward
Alachua
Leon
Gadsden
Orange
Osceola
Palm Beach
Miami-Dade
5 of these are in the top 10 counties in terms of size: Miami-Dade; Broward; Palm Beach; Orange: and Duval.
While not all 67 counties are early, in-person voting now, those that aren’t are Trumpland.
Need to darken the red counties!
That list of counties closely matches final 2016 Florida map.
Duval being an exception. Ds lead IPEV there but Trump won in 2016. By 1 point.
Duval may flip yet.
The flip side of that is that Miami-Dade, Broward, etc are all trending nicely to Advantage Trump. Because of their sheer size, an Advantage Trump there outweighs many redder red counties.