Interesting stuff. Back after the conventions I picked Trump to win all those listed states except NJ, with OR and NM as toss-ups. OR because of the Portland invasion and NM because of fracking. And I do think it’s likely that Trump would lose Maine’s first district even if he wins the state. But I’d be happy to be wrong!
The numbers are in line with what has been going on in the states like you stated. Covid 19 has a negative effect on Democrats too.