I think the President will win Minnesota this time for a bunch of reasons:
—The Trump campaign views it as a state that is in play and they are focusing on it.
—The Minneapolis riots. At the end of the day I think that terrified a lot of “swing” voters in the suburbs. When you add the emerging issue of doxxing and censorship I expect some new Trump support.
—The Minneapolis riots. Expect business folks and some workers who lost their jobs due to riots to move to Trump.
—Coronavirus. This has made it difficult for Democrats to go door to door and mobilize their base—and it will keep some older Democratic voters who failed to vote by mail from going to the polls.
—The Bernie factor. Young Bernie supporters are even more angry at the Democrats than they were last time. Many will not vote for the old timer corrupt Biden.
I think the state will be close, but I expect a Trump win by 2-3 percentage points.
I have some relatives living there who have been totally influenced by one of their liberal universities. The wife certainly wasn’t raised that way.
“This has made it difficult for Democrats to go door to door and mobilize their base”
actually, a couple of months ago the biden campaign (such as it is) proudly and publicly announced that there would be NO ground game ... that they were going 100% digital and virtual GOTV ...
apparently that didn’t work out too well, and they panicked and tried to cobble together a national ground GOTV campaign in the last couple of weeks, something that the Trump campaign has been building for over four years ...