“Won’t happen? Well, we will find out in 2 weeks. Just keep in mind your 653K threshold hasn’t changed in a long time, yet the race is dynamic. Some GOP areas aren’t even voting yet.”
I know people want to complain about 653k. I realize that percentages are a better metric. But I tried to reasonably turn 80.5% turnout that I think Ds need to hit into a vote number.
In the end, I think 653k will correlate decently with percentages.
Meaning if 653k is hit, Ds will be in the vicinity of 80%. Maybe 79%. If they hit 653k with 74% turnout, then I missed the mark bigly.
VMB requests now up to 5,854,426 and rises each day. I will do another calculation on 10/25 with deadline for requests. I expect 653k to go up some, maybe not alot. The new additional requests are more balanced D/R than before.
Tell me bottom-line stuff. We got FL?
Speedy you do great work but that NUMBER WAS NEVER CORRECT!! I have worked FL Politics for 20 years and you are too low!! You are missing ELECTION NIGHT in reverse!!
Gallup found, as those of us on the ground in FL working the election, that DEMS are petrified of COVID!! Gallup found 90 percent of Dems were scare of Covid and Gatherings!! They will drop off ballots but their VBM should be way up!!
I am working DADE but my home is in Central FL in a Purple/Blue County!! My neighbors almost all Hispanic that primarily vote Dem!! The Dem leadership in FL pushed VBM huge and in June/July the COVID POSITIVE Rates freaked them out!!
The GOP is reverse!! The 2016 model is hard to use because we never had COVID ELECTION!! But we are seeing the DEM numbers based on COVID FEAR not new Voters or new Dems.
They need higher then 653K because they must offset the fact GOP by over 2 to 1 will vote on Election Day itself. And you are seeing the EV favor GOP!
Miami will be the county as you see about 8 percent Net for Trump! I know we NETTED the MOST for GOP in new Regisrations!
GOP NETTED 200k since 2016.....106k since Aug 2020....that is NET! The Dems must outperform 2016 to counter when they lost by 100k...
GOP is jazzed..the DEMS in fear!! You will need to revise that number!