“In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 41,039”
With 2 days of IPEV, Rs lead by 41k. 14 days of IPEV total.
So 41 * 7 = 287k. Maybe add another 50-100k because some R counties haven’t started voting IP yet. That puts Rs around 350k.
Ds will lead VBM by 600-700k.
Ds will lead overall by election day 250-350k.
Rs need a huge turnout on election day for the win.
Maybe ‘mini-Mike’ Bloomberg’s money is being put to good use in FL after all.
True, but even at those marks, they are smack dab in the middle of the 294K lead you estimated, so all in all we are kind of right where we thought we’d be.