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To: All

Statistics are stated various ways. Like 99.xx% survival rate for young.

OTOH, of all those who have died of the disease — 80% were over age 65. 20% were younger. 20% seem rare to you?


16 posted on 10/20/2020 10:44:54 AM PDT by Owen
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To: Owen

That’s why numbers are better than percentages. Percentages can be misleading. 20% of those who died are in the younger age group. That does NOT mean that young people have a 20% chance of dying if they get COVID. To make simple math let’s approximate the totals as 8 million cases and 250,000 deaths. This means that there have been 200,000 deaths in the old age group and 50,000 in the young age group. Almost all of the case total is young, let’s say 7 million. That would indicate a CFR among the young group of <1%. It would indicate a CFR of 20% in the old group. Since estimates are that actual infection rates are likely 5-10x greater than reported numbers, the true risk is likely <0.1% for young people and 2-4% for old people. The 20% of deaths being young people does not matter—there are a lot more young people and therefore a lot more cases among them.


23 posted on 10/20/2020 12:01:06 PM PDT by stremba
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