His analysis is flawed off the bat in assuming the same polling errors exist for 2020 that did in 2016. Also, his margins of losses for Trump are insane. There is no way Trump will lose a state by more than the amount 538 has him down by. Trump will outperform the 538 averages in nearly all cases.
TRUMP signs are 10-1 over Biden’s in Phoenix area. It’s guns, baby.
I hope and pray he’s right.
Too many unknowns. The polls are crazy from one extreme to the other. Nobody knows how many funny mail ballots will be let into the count.
Yahoo news.......pigs just flew past my kitchen window!!!
These claims are highly misleading. Yes, Trump won a convincing electoral college victory, however that was due to him over performing expectations in a couple states, namely Michigan and Wisconsin and Iowa. Polls showed trump winning Florida and Ohio. Pennsylvania was well within the MoE. He was the underdog to be sure but not nearly as big as many people now think.
The national polls were almost dead on accurate. That’s just false to say the national polls were wrong in 2016.
Anyone thinking the “polls are wrong” this year is gonna be in for a big fvcking surprise. Trump is in a deep deep hole and is in WAY way worse position than this time in 2016.
Read the article...And I was encouraged...I don’t put much faith in polls. But I am concerned about one type of polling data, “presidential job approval”. I’m sure the accuracy of this Gallup data below is no better than any other. But its significance for me is based on the results when related to the reelection of incumbent presidents. Twice, since 1948 in eleven elections, POTUS incumbents with less than 50% job approval were reelected.—Truman 1948, 40% and G.W. Bush 2004, 49%.
While these poll results were certainly obtained with the same under/oversampling bias etc. that have always contaminated results, IMO, the relationship to reelection is very interesting.
Thanks, but it will not be an unset. Biden has never been in this race except in fake polls.