Any word out of OH early voting? I know a week ago there were some concerns, but TargetSmart is now claiming that the gap is completely closed and then some.
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/?view_type=State&demo=Modeled%20Party&demo_val=All&state=OH
No. I’ll ask my BOE guy in Montgomery Co tomorrow. MC is a key county in OH. It went Clinton 2x, Gore, Kerry, Obama 2x, Trump.
An R carries OH if he is even close in MC. If he is tied, it’s a big margin. If he wins, like Trump, it’s 9 points.
Last Wed or so I was told that Ds had a 70,000 lead (out of about 140,000 Ds in the county, so they are really voted out already) but that Rs had evened up the dailies.
Here are some top-level numbers from 10/14 (after one week).
Absentee requests have doubled since 2016, and early voting has tripled.
Outside of the “modeling” which does look favorable this morning, fewer new or infrequent voters compared to 2016. Fewer 18 to 29 compared to 2016. That seems to be the hard data which is favorable