Posted on 10/16/2020 6:17:15 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Here are the RETURNED Florida VBM numbers for 2020 (these are returned ballots but not yet counted).
39.7% of VBM ballots have been returned at this point.
38.0% of REP ballots have been returned and 43.5% of DEM ballots have been returned.
10/16/20: REPs - 681,111, DEMs - 1,124,439, lead of 443,328 for DEMs, 49.4% to 29.9%
10/15/20: REPs - 623,395, DEMs - 1,043,514, lead of 420,119 for DEMs, 49.9% to 29.8%
10/14/20: REPs - 564,361, DEMs - 967,036, lead of 402,675 for DEMs, 50.4% to 29.4%
10/13/20: REPs - 519,876, DEMs - 904,217, lead of 384,341 for DEMs, 50.7% to 29.2%
10/12/20: REPs - 487,754, DEMs - 850,328, lead of 362,574 for DEMs, 50.9% to 29.2%
10/11/20: REPs - 483,090, DEMs - 841,355, lead of 358,265 for DEMs, 50.9% to 29.2%
10/10/20: REPs - 450,447, DEMs - 791,730, lead of 341,283 for DEMs, 51.1% to 29.1%
10/09/20: REPs - 396,499, DEMs - 707,505, lead of 311,006 for DEMs, 51.6% to 28.9%
10/08/20: REPs - 337,927, DEMs - 612,982, lead of 275,055 for DEMs, 52.0% to 28.7%
10/07/20: REPs - 269,817, DEMs - 497,324, lead of 227,507 for DEMs, 52.4% to 28.5%
10/06/20: REPs - 197,449, DEMs - 372,096, lead of 174,647 for DEMs, 53.0% to 28.1%
10/05/20: REPs - 157,855, DEMs - 305,982, lead of 148,127 for DEMs, 53.5% to 27.6%
10/04/20: REPs - 145,798, DEMs - 282,169, lead of 136,371 for DEMs, 53.7% to 27.7%
10/03/20: REPs - 126,799, DEMs - 244,806, lead of 118,007 for DEMs, 53.5% to 27.7%
10/02/20: REPs - 92,935, DEMs - 183,972, lead of 91,037 for DEMs, 54.0% to 27.2%
10/01/20: REPs - 65,516, DEMs - 126,602, lead of 61,086 for DEMs, 53.4% to 27.7%
09/30/20: REPs - 36,075, DEMs - 70,349, lead of 34,274 for DEMs, 53.3% to 27.3%
09/29/20: REPs - 9,330, DEMs - 18,190, lead of 8,860 for DEMs, 53.5% to 27.5%
09/28/20: REPs - 2,272, DEMs - 3,555, lead of 1,283 for DEMs, 47.7% to 30.5%
09/27/20: REPs - 2,165, DEMs - 3,411, lead of 1,246 for DEMs, 47.9% to 30.4%
09/26/20: REPs - 1,983, DEMs - 3,184, lead of 1,201 for DEMs, 48.2% to 30.0%
09/25/20: REPs - 754, DEMs - 1,673, lead of 919 for DEMs, 55.0% to 24.8%
Magic Number for Reps to hit in IPEV: 359,000 lead
Combined VBM+IPEV Magic Number for Reps to hit in IPEV: Down by 294k
In 2016, Reps who did not VBM, voted 55% IPEV and 45% ED. Following that pattern, Reps need to reduce Dem VBM lead by 55% IPEV. 55% of 653k = 359k. That would take the Dem combined VBM+IPEV lead down to 294k by Election Day.
I will update Dem magic number on 10/25 with VBM ballot request deadline. Rep magic number is a percentage of Dem magic number, so it will periodically change.
DEMs are on pace to hit their magic number in VBM.
REPs now need to storm the IPEV and build up a sizeable lead in that category.
I wish they wouldn’t post this info.
It tells the dems how much they need to forge to win.
No counting should be done until Election Day. Then count them all and take no late ballots.
With early voting allowed in so many places, there’s no reason whatsoever, for ballots to come in late.
Kind of cryptic. I know you perfectly understand what you are writing but I have a problem following.
BIG slowdown by Ds in last two days. They are now 200,00 down from where they need to be, and the percentages are slowing dramatically, from 55% 10 days ago to just 40% now.
Dems are building up a sizeable lead with mail in ballots. Maybe 653,000 lead.
Republicans will need to eliminate that lead through In Person Early Voting (starts 10/19 in FL) and Election Day voting.
Dems are in VBM mania. Reps need to win with in person voting.
You can bet in the Dim districts they are watching this data like a hawk. They already know these facts. It’s important to let us know too. It should help motivate Fla voters. The scary thing to me is that along with the libs a lot of seniors are scared to death of this virus. Hope they show up in the panhandle and west coast of Fla in big numbers. We have a pretty large lead in registrations. Usually folks that register prior to a specific election do so to vote in THAT election. If this holds true then we will likely be O K.
Nonsense. We voted in AZ and showed ID three times. All VBMs are signed twice.
Freepers need to stop this “muh fraud” crap.
Oops. Sorry, from 55% to 49.9%.
Can someone explain more like Exec Summary report? from 30,000 ft altitude
Republicans cut in half Democrats’ lead in Florida registered voters
Republicans now trail with roughly 5.2 million votes, compared to more than 5.3 million in the swing state
Dem returned ballots keeps going up 3% a day. From 40.5% to 43.5%, yesterday to today.
I keep waiting for their rate to slow down. And waiting, and waiting.
At 3% a day, Ds would hit 85% by Election Eve. That is an ominous number.
In 2016, Ds were at 74% by Election Eve and 79% post election (adding in Election Eve and Election Day VBM ballots).
This tells me that ballots were probably sent to the Democrat areas first and so they were the first to start coming in.
Anyway, as with four years ago, a huge ED turnout should wash away any Democrat early voting lead.
Some back of envelope math for the first day of how in-person EV went in NC:
333,466 ballots (!) were cast for in-person early voting.
Out of these, these were 164,004 Democrat, 88,920 Republican, and 90,179 Independent for a breakdown of 49%, 26.67%, 27.04%.
This is definitely not what we need to be seeing either, but maybe it will settle out next week.
I’m with you. Have no idea what this means
Dems are building up a sizeable lead with mail in ballots. Maybe 653,000 lead.
Republicans will need to eliminate that lead through In Person Early Voting (starts 10/19 in FL) and Election Day voting.
“Freepers need to stop this “muh fraud” crap.”
Odd protest BS.
Voting fraud BY THE MARXIST DEMOCRATS is rampant throughout the country. All that gets caught is the tip of the iceberg.
I am of the opinion that Freepers need to be watchful for these and other treacherous activities all day long every day. These people are committed enemies.
“This is definitely not what we need to be seeing either, but maybe it will settle out next week.”
What little enthusiasm of Marxists is being wrung out quickly
So much for the enthusiasm gap. This election will be tough!
There is fraud in every election.
According to my friends on the Board of Elections, it is NEVER enough to flip a race.
Yes, you can point to an occasional Dino Rossi. But in all cases these are very, very, very close races (Thune in 2002).
Rs have won 8/9 court cases on thses.
If we spent half as much time registering voters and getting them to the polls as we did fretting about “fraud,” we’d never lose.
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